Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Paul comes mainly from recent record by level, which contributed 6.4 percentage points toward him, and from better surface fit, which added 3.9 points. That aligns with Paul’s higher form index at 67.40 compared with Bublik’s 61.52, and Paul’s stronger Elo rating of 1874.26 versus Bublik’s 1783.15. The overall strength metric also nudges the prediction 1.6 points toward Paul. Bublik does get 1.6 percentage points from head-to-head factors according to the explainability output, so the matchup is not one-sided on past meetings. Both players arrive with identical accumulated fatigue of 348 minutes on court in this tournament. Bublik is ranked 16 and Paul 21. Surface strength indices are close, 37.09 for Bublik and 39.99 for Paul, showing only a small advantage for Paul on hard courts. Serve and return metrics are comparable, with mean serve indices of 97.22 for Bublik and 95.92 for Paul, and mean return indices of 87.99 and 89.46 respectively. The serve and return component slightly favors Paul by 1.3 points in the model. Over their last three matches, Bublik has two recent US Open wins (3-0 over Mannarino, 3-1 over J.J. Wolf) and a loss on clay at Kitzbuhel. Paul also has two US Open wins (each 3-1) and a recent loss in Cincinnati.