Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Moutet (rank 35) brings a solid baseline game with a form index of 56.13, an Elo of 1384.41, zero fatigue in this event, and a surface strength index of 8.87. His mean serve index (64.55) and mean return index (58.71) mark him as a capable returner who can construct points, but his serve numbers are notably lower than his opponent’s. Over his last three hard-court outings at the Australian Open he posted two opening wins before a straight-sets loss to Carlos Alcaraz, showing competitive stretches but an inconsistent level against top opposition. Paul (rank 24) arrives with a slightly higher form index (59.18), a markedly higher Elo (1866.98), no accumulated fatigue, and a surface strength index of 15.22. His serve and return profiles are substantially superior: mean serve index 96.29 versus Moutet’s 64.55 (difference >5), and mean return index 89.94 versus 58.71 (difference >5), indicating a clear edge both on serve production and on returning. Recent results include a win over Jenson Brooksby and a loss to Miomir Kecmanovic in Dallas; he also fell to Alcaraz at the Australian Open, suggesting solid form but occasional vulnerability.