Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #18
66%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #64
34%
Expected Total Games: 26.3
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current Rank: #18 (2026-05-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #24 (2026-02-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-11-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-08-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #12 (2025-05-19)

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current Rank: #64 (2026-05-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #54 (2026-02-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #46 (2025-11-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2025-08-18)
  • 12 Months Ago: #66 (2025-05-19)

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 1824.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1882.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 283.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.8
Clay: 38.4
Grass: 17.1
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 91.9

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 39.4
ELO Rating: 1560.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 270.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 21.4
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-1) clay Hamburg 213 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) clay Hamburg 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Rome 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (0-2) clay Madrid 102 min

Daniel Altmaier
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-1) clay Hamburg 170 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) clay Hamburg 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Rome 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) clay Rome 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Hamburg on clay at an ATP 500 event pits No.18 Tommy Paul against No.64 Daniel Altmaier. The model favors Paul to advance (65.71% vs 34.29%) and projects a relatively short clay duel of about 26.3 total games.

Match Analysis

Paul arrives with the stronger résumé on paper: higher ranking (18), an Elo of 1824.15 versus Altmaier’s 1560.04, and a superior form index (46.68 to 39.39). He also posts better surface and return metrics (surface strength 38.36; mean return 91.88), while Altmaier’s mean serve index (95.42) and overall serve metrics are comparable to Paul’s. Fatigue is a factor: Paul has logged 283 minutes at this event — including a marathon 213-minute victory over Tomas Martin Etcheverry — while Altmaier has 270 minutes. That margin is modest but Paul’s heavier workload in the last round could influence late-match legs. Over their recent three outings both men show the same win-loss split (2-1). Paul beat Etcheverry and Quinn here in Hamburg (two wins including the long match) and split earlier in Rome, while Altmaier has built momentum with wins over Ben Shelton and Rinky Hijikata after a straight-sets loss to Alexander Zverev in Rome. The contrast is Paul’s steadier return numbers and Altmaier’s ability to produce timely service holds; recent match lengths suggest Paul has been tested deeper this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.3 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Daniel Altmaier) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Tommy Paul wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 9.02 for the match and the predicted double faults are roughly 3.05. Given clay’s slower pace and high bounce, the expected aces figure is muted and the expected double faults figure reflects the surface’s tendency to extend rallies and sap serving consistency. Neither player posts a markedly superior serve rating that would dramatically lift the predicted aces tally.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.0 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.0 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tommy Paul's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (41.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s edge comes from higher ranking, Elo and a stronger return profile combined with marginally better surface numbers. The key factor to watch is Paul's effectiveness on return early in games and whether Altmaier can convert his service chances to push longer sets.

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