Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Hubert Hurkacz vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #31
50%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
50%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 2329.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1818.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 358.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.8
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 22.5
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 84.5

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 59.7
ELO Rating: 2707.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1783.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 337.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.7
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 27.6
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Last Match: vs Jakub Mensik (2-1) clay Rome 179 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Rome 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) clay Rome 83 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (0-2) clay Madrid 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Indian Wells 73 min

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Rome 114 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Rome 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Madrid 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) clay Madrid 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Hubert Hurkacz is set to face Tommy Paul on clay, a surface that traditionally tests players' agility and endurance. The match is projected to be closely contested, with Tommy Paul slightly favored to win with a probability of 50.33%, compared to Hurkacz's 49.67%. The predicted total number of games played is 24.0, indicating a potentially hard-fought battle.

Match Analysis

Hubert Hurkacz, currently ranked 31, possesses a form index of 52.26 and an Elo rating of 2329.07. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 358 minutes, which may affect his performance. His surface strength index is 21.58, reflecting a moderate proficiency on clay. Hurkacz has a mean serve index of 98.54 and a mean return index of 84.48. Notably, his serve index is significantly higher than Paul's by just under 3 points, suggesting he may have an edge in service games. Conversely, Tommy Paul, ranked 12, boasts a higher form index of 59.69 and an Elo rating of 2707.47, indicating a more robust recent performance. His cumulative fatigue is slightly lower at 337 minutes, which could provide him with an advantage in stamina. Paul's surface strength index is 25.37, and he excels in his return game with a mean return index of 88.44—approximately 4 points higher than Hurkacz's. Over the last three matches, Paul has displayed formidable form, winning against his opponents decisively, including a straight-set victory over Alex de Minaur in his last match.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul's slight advantage in recent form and superior return game makes him the predicted winner in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Hurkacz's serve against Paul's strong return capabilities, which could dictate the flow of the match and ultimately determine the outcome.