Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Medvedev comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 11) with a strong Elo (2582.35) and a healthy form index (64.38). He shows no accumulated fatigue in the event and posts a solid mean serve index (71.65) and a modest mean return index (37.70). His surface strength index on hard courts is 13.39, indicating a similar comfort level on this surface compared with his opponent. Humbert is ranked 38 with a lower form index (34.97) and a substantially lower Elo (1395.63). He likewise reports zero fatigue and has a comparable surface strength index (12.72). The difference in mean serve index is notable: Humbert’s serving metric (98.04) is roughly 26 points higher than Medvedev’s, and his mean return index (90.54) outstrips Medvedev’s by over 52 points — both gaps exceed 5 points and are likely to shape key tactical matchups. Looking at recent results, Medvedev has gone 2–1 in his last three matches, with wins against Quentin Halys and Fabian Marozsan followed by a loss to Learner Tien at the Australian Open. Humbert has a 1–2 record across his last three outings: a win over Botic van de Zandschulp in Montpellier sandwiched between losses to Adrian Mannarino and Ben Shelton. Those recent forms, combined with Elo and ranking differences, feed into the matchup probability favoring Medvedev.