Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #32
29%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #23
71%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Why the Model Favors Jiri Lehecka

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.7 Jiri Lehecka
Surface fit +4.5 Jiri Lehecka
Recent form +3.0 Jiri Lehecka
Overall strength +3.0 Jiri Lehecka
Serve & return game +1.5 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Jiri Lehecka. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #32 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #34 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-09-29

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #23 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 28.2
ELO Rating: 1654.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 70.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.1
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 49.5
ELO Rating: 1828.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1842.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 213.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Tokio 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (0-2) hard Cincinnati 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Merida (0-2) hard Toronto 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Washington 144 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andres Martin (2-0) hard Washington 81 min

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Jiri Lehecka is favored over Ugo Humbert in Tokyo’s Round of 16, with the forecast giving him 71% to Humbert’s 29%. The expected total is 23.2 games.

Match Analysis

Lehecka’s stronger recent form and higher overall level are central to the forecast. He is ranked 23rd to Humbert’s 32nd, and has won two of his last three matches, while Humbert has won one. Lehecka also beat Zizou Bergs in his Tokyo opener, though it took 213 minutes. Humbert may make this closer by applying pressure on return. He has a slight advantage in return play, while the two have similar serving strength. Humbert comes in off a straight-set win over Brandon Nakashima that took 70 minutes, compared with Lehecka’s long opener.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Jiri Lehecka) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Jiri Lehecka wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The estimates are 7.0 aces and 2.6 double faults for Humbert, against 7.9 aces and 2.0 double faults for Lehecka. Their serving profiles are close, so the ace projections are similar, while Humbert carries the higher expected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Ugo Humbert 7.0 + Jiri Lehecka 7.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Ugo Humbert 2.6 + Jiri Lehecka 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ugo Humbert

Expected 7.0 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 7.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ugo Humbert

Expected 2.6 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (42.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Humbert’s return advantage gives him a path to upsetting the forecast. Lehecka’s heavier workload in Tokyo could also matter if the match extends toward the projected total.

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