Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Ugo Humbert vs Vit Kopriva: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #33
54%
VS

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #55
46%
Expected Total Games: 27.8
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #33 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #38 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-05-05

Vit Kopriva

  • Current #55 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #81 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #92 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 35.4
ELO Rating: 1668.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1737.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.1
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 90.9

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 59.9
ELO Rating: 1696.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Vit Kopriva
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Vit Kopriva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the round of 64 in Rome (Italy) on clay at a masters_1000 event, Ugo Humbert is narrowly favoured to progress. The model gives Humbert a 53.58% chance to win versus Vit Kopriva at 46.42%, with a predicted total of about 27.77 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Humbert arrives with the higher ranking (No. 33) and strong serve/return indices (mean serve 96.55, mean return 90.86) and an Elo of 1668. His form index (35.40) is modest and his surface strength index on clay is low (11.15). By contrast Kopriva, ranked 55, posts a higher form index (59.95) and a slightly higher Elo (1696.64), with a better clay profile (surface strength 26.19). Kopriva does carry 78 minutes of tournament fatigue on court in Rome; Humbert shows 0 minutes of cumulative fatigue in this event, which may matter over extended rallies on clay. Recent results underline a tight matchup: Humbert is 1-2 in his last three, beating Moïse Kouamé but dropping tough clay matches to Jannik Sinner and Terence Atmane, including a long 136-minute outing in Madrid. Kopriva is 2-1 over his last three, with wins in Rome (beat Fabian Marozsan) and Madrid (beat Arthur Rinderknech) and a loss to Rafael Jodar. Those patterns — Humbert’s superior ranking and serve/return metrics versus Kopriva’s current form and slightly better clay index — explain the narrow edge in the prediction.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.8 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Vit Kopriva) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.93 for the match and the expected double faults are 3.88. Clay’s slower, high-bouncing nature typically reduces ace totals and increases the likelihood of unforced serving errors late in rallies, aligning with this predicted aces and expected double faults figure. Neither player has a decisively superior serve rating (difference under 5 points), so a single big-server effect on the predicted aces is unlikely.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Humbert’s edge comes from higher ranking and very strong serve/return indices combined with freshness in the draw, offsetting Kopriva’s better recent form and clay comfort. Watch the first-serve hold percentage and how fatigue affects short-term serving accuracy — those elements should decide a tight match.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel