Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Valentin Royer

Rank: #71
45%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #114
55%
Expected Total Games: 29.3
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

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Ranking Trends

Valentin Royer

  • Current #71 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #58 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #99 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #120 2025-05-19

Francisco Comesana

  • Current #114 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #63 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #54 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #64 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Valentin Royer

Form Index: 17.9
ELO Rating: 1459.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1374.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 19.6
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 92.4

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 45.3
ELO Rating: 1577.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 133.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 16.9
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Valentin Royer
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Francisco Comesana
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Max Hans Rehberg (2-0) clay Geneva 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Bernet (2-0) clay Geneva 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) clay Rome 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Leandro Riedi (2-1) clay Rome 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) clay Rome 97 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Valentin Royer
vs
1
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Geneva, Switzerland, Round of 32 on clay at an ATP 250 event, Francisco Comesana is narrowly favoured to beat Valentin Royer. The projection gives Comesana a 55.21% chance to win against Royer’s 44.79%, with an expected total of roughly 29.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the two players present contrasting profiles. Valentin Royer (rank 71) arrives with a superior mean serve index (96.45) and mean return index (92.43), an Elo of 1459.95 and virtually no tournament fatigue, but his form index is low at 17.85 and his clay surface strength index sits at 7.85. Francisco Comesana (rank 114) posts a higher Elo (1576.97) and a healthier form index (45.29); his surface strength index is 16.91 and he carries 133 minutes of match play in Geneva so far. Recent results underline why Comesana is favoured. Royer has lost his last three matches (straight-sets defeats in Rome and Madrid, and a three-set loss in Miami), suggesting form issues despite his strong underlying serve/return metrics. Comesana, by contrast, has opened Geneva with two efficient straight-set wins (65 and 68 minutes), showing tournament momentum after a loss to Jan-Lennard Struff in Rome. The clash will therefore be a test of Comesana’s current rhythm and Royer’s ability to translate high serve/return indices into match wins.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 29.3 Most likely outcome: 29 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Valentin Royer - Francisco Comesana) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Francisco Comesana wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: a predicted aces total of about 12.84. Expected double faults are 5.49. Clay’s slower surface typically reduces ace totals and can increase double faults as rallies and matches wear on players; that dynamic may be accentuated if Comesana’s cumulative minutes generate late-match fatigue. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating that would dramatically skew the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.8 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Valentin Royer's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (29.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Comesana’s higher Elo, better recent form and two quick wins in Geneva give him a small edge, despite Royer’s superior serve and return metrics and the freshness advantage. The decisive factor to watch will be whether Comesana’s momentum holds up physically on clay or if Royer’s serving and return quality can force breaks early.

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