Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vilius Gaubas

Rank: #124
43%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #64
57%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Vilius Gaubas

  • Current #124 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #129 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #133 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #135 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #149 2025-04-21

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #64 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #36 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Vilius Gaubas

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 1631.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1675.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 285.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.0
Clay: 41.5
Grass: 39.9
Serve Rating: 62.6
Return Rating: 72.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1670.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1769.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.5
Clay: 40.0
Grass: 41.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 93.7

Recent Matches

Vilius Gaubas
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Barcelona 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) clay Bucharest 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Bucharest 79 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vilius Gaubas
vs
1
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid's Masters 1000 opens on clay with a round-of-128 clash between Vilius Gaubas and Sebastián Báez. The model favors Báez (56.74%) over Gaubas (43.26%), with a predicted total of about 22.9 games in the match — a scoreline shape that points toward straight sets or a quick three-setter.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is close. Gaubas (rank 124) arrives with a stronger recent form index (57.8) than Báez (46.4) and a solid return profile, but Báez (rank 64) holds the edge in Elo (1670.6 vs 1631.2). Fatigue is a clear factor: Gaubas has logged 285 minutes already in Madrid, including a 202-minute win in his last match, whereas Báez is fresh with zero minutes in this event. Both players show modest clay-specific strength (Gaubas 41.5, Báez 40.0), so neither has a pronounced surface dominance. Serve and return metrics create an interesting contrast. Báez’s mean serve index (97.1) is markedly higher than Gaubas’s (62.6) — a difference well over 5 points — and his mean return index (93.7) also exceeds Gaubas’s (72.9) by a similar margin. That dual advantage suggests Báez can hold more comfortably and create return pressure when on the disadvantaged side. Recent form narratives mirror the stats: Gaubas has two wins in Madrid (including a long three-setter and a straight-sets match) after a loss in Barcelona, while Báez has one win (Wawrinka) followed by two defeats in higher-tier events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez) -0.2 Most likely spread: -1 (Sebastian Baez wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is moderate — predicted aces sit at 17.16 — but clay generally suppresses big-server numbers, so the predicted aces will be lower than on faster courts. Expected double faults are 4.05, and the expected double faults figure may be influenced by Gaubas’s accumulated minutes; fatigue on clay can raise error rates. Báez’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces toward the total despite the slow surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.2 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Báez’s superior serve and return indices, combined with fresher legs and a higher Elo, give him the edge in Madrid. Watch how Gaubas’s endurance holds up early: if he breaks quickly or forces extended rallies, the dynamics could tilt his way.

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