Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #53
56%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #59
44%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Hubert Hurkacz

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #53 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #52 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #40 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-05-05

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #59 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #117 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #132 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #125 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 36.6
ELO Rating: 1592.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 23.6
Grass: 11.7
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 86.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 42.0
ELO Rating: 1669.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 23.2
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Hubert Hurkacz
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Munich 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Karim Bennani (2-1) clay Marrakech 132 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Marrakech 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hubert Hurkacz
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Round of 128 on clay at a Masters 1000 event pits Hubert Hurkacz against Yannick Hanfmann in an intriguing early clash. The model favors Hurkacz to prevail (55.53% vs 44.47%) with a projected total of about 25.3 games in the match, pointing to a straight-sets or quick three-set encounter on slow courts.

Match Analysis

Hurkacz arrives ranked 53 with an Elo of 1592.67, a form index of 36.57 and no accumulated fatigue in this event. His surface strength index on clay is modest at 23.63, but his mean serve index is very high (96.41) and his mean return index is also strong (86.90). Hanfmann, ranked 59, posts a higher Elo at 1669.80 and a slightly stronger recent form index of 41.98; his clay surface strength is comparable at 23.22. Hanfmann’s serve and return indices (95.36 and 85.92) mirror Hurkacz’s closely, so there’s no large gap on either metric. Recent results paint a familiar pattern for both: Hurkacz has two losses and one win in his last three clay outings — a win over Jaime Faria in Madrid sandwiched by defeats to Valentin Vacherot and Lorenzo Musetti, including a 110–173 minute heavy match among them. Hanfmann also comes in with mixed clay form: a solid win against Marcos Giron in Madrid but losses to Francisco Cerundolo and Alexander Blockx in his other two most recent starts, with match lengths ranging from 88 to 143 minutes. Neither player carries tournament fatigue into Rome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hubert Hurkacz - Yannick Hanfmann) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Yannick Hanfmann wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash sits at about 11.57 total, while the predicted double faults tally is roughly 5.58. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time; conversely, expected double faults can rise as longer rallies and physical wear set in. With both players posting very similar serve ratings, no single server is likely to dominate the predicted aces count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.6 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hubert Hurkacz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s edge comes from a combination of marginally better projected win probability and a higher-form serve/return profile in the model, despite comparable clay profiles and Elo numbers. Watch the early hold-to-break conversions and serve consistency — double faults and a short return game could decide this one.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel