Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Yunchaokete Bu vs Kamil Majchrzak Prediction

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #114
36%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #73
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Kamil Majchrzak

Why the Model Favors Kamil Majchrzak

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +6.9 Kamil Majchrzak
Recent form +3.6 Kamil Majchrzak
Serve & return game +2.8 Kamil Majchrzak
Age +2.3 Yunchaokete Bu
Overall record & opposition quality +1.9 Kamil Majchrzak

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Kamil Majchrzak. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current #114 2026-09-14
  • 3 mo ago #107 2026-06-15
  • 6 mo ago #150 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #122 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-09-22

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #73 2026-09-21
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-06-22
  • 6 mo ago #57 2026-03-16
  • 9 mo ago #62 2025-12-22
  • 12 mo ago #65 2025-09-22

Player Metrics

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 1619.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.0
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 88.1

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 1621.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.5
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Yunchaokete Bu
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Zheng (2-0) hard Hangzhou 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Zheng (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Federico Cina (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Borna Gojo (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Kamil Majchrzak
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yunchaokete Bu
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Majchrzak is favored in the Round of 16, with a 64% win probability to Bu’s 36%. The forecast points to a fairly close contest, with 23.8 total games expected.

Match Analysis

Bu arrives after a straight-sets win over Michael Zheng, while Majchrzak also opened with a straight-sets victory, over Mattia Bellucci. Their latest three-match records are alike, but Majchrzak’s higher ranking, 73rd against Bu’s 114th, supports his advantage. The separation in their serve and return profiles is slight. Majchrzak has the marginal serving edge, while Bu is marginally stronger on return, making Bu’s ability to apply pressure on return an important counter to the forecast.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yunchaokete Bu - Kamil Majchrzak) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bu is projected for 8.1 aces and 2.6 double faults, with Majchrzak at 7.1 aces and 2.1 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, so the small difference in expected aces does not point to a major serving mismatch on hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 8.1 + Kamil Majchrzak 7.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Yunchaokete Bu 2.6 + Kamil Majchrzak 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 8.1 aces

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 7.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Yunchaokete Bu

Expected 2.6 double faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yunchaokete Bu's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bu’s slightly stronger return profile gives him a way to change the outlook. If he consistently puts pressure on Majchrzak’s service games, that could offset the Pole’s small serving advantage.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel