Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #80
38%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #57
62%
Expected Total Games: 39.1
Predicted Winner: Daniel Altmaier

Why the Model Favors Daniel Altmaier

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +10.0 Daniel Altmaier
Age +1.9 Zachary Svajda
Overall strength +0.9 Daniel Altmaier
Serve & return game +0.8 Zachary Svajda
Overall record & opposition quality +0.7 Daniel Altmaier

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Daniel Altmaier. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 34.1
ELO Rating: 1634.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.3
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 87.4

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 38.6
ELO Rating: 1597.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.2
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.2

Recent Matches

Zachary Svajda

  • Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (0-2) hard Cincinnati 124 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (1-2) hard Toronto 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (1-1) hard Toronto 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) hard Washington 50 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Cruz Hewitt (1-1) hard Washington 97 min

Daniel Altmaier

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zachary Svajda
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, round of 128 on hard courts, Daniel Altmaier is the model favorite to beat Zachary Svajda. The prediction gives Altmaier a 61.96% chance to win versus 38.04% for Svajda. The model expects about 39.0 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Altmaier comes mainly from recent form. Altmaier posts a slightly higher form index (39.94) than Svajda (35.50), and that difference is what drives the largest single factor in the projection. Altmaier is also the higher-ranked player at 57 versus Svajda at 80, and the model tacks on a small overall strength advantage toward Altmaier despite Svajda carrying a higher Elo rating (Svajda 1634.14, Altmaier 1597.88). The explainability output also credits Svajda with modest age and serve and return advantages, but those are smaller effects. Both players arrive with fresh legs for this match, each showing zero accumulated tournament fatigue. Surface strength indices are modest for both on hard courts: Svajda 20.26, Altmaier 16.24. Serving and returning profiles are close. Svajda’s mean serve index is 94.29 and his mean return index is 87.37. Altmaier’s mean serve index is 95.33 and his mean return index is 85.16. Over their last three matches each, neither player has been dominant. Svajda’s recent results are one win and two losses, with a notable win over Denis Shapovalov followed by two defeats in Toronto and Cincinnati. Altmaier’s last three also show one win and two losses, including a straight-sets loss most recently and a hard-fought win in Winston Salem two matches ago.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.1 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zachary Svajda - Daniel Altmaier) -1.0 Most likely spread: -2 (Daniel Altmaier wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. Positive values indicate Zachary Svajda winning more games, negative values indicate Daniel Altmaier winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is 19.43 total, with predicted aces split roughly 9.58 for Svajda and 10.21 for Altmaier. The expected double faults total is 8.40, split about 4.15 for Svajda and 4.25 for Altmaier. Hard courts typically yield a moderate number of aces and the predicted aces reflect that balance. Neither player posts a dramatically higher serve rating, so the per player ace projections are close: 9.58 versus 10.21.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.5 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Zachary Svajda 9.6 + Daniel Altmaier 10.2
Expected Total Double Faults 8.4 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Zachary Svajda 4.1 + Daniel Altmaier 4.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Zachary Svajda

Expected 9.6 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Zachary Svajda serves in this match.
Daniel Altmaier

Expected 10.2 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Zachary Svajda versus Daniel Altmaier. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Zachary Svajda

Expected 4.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Zachary Svajda serves in this match.
Daniel Altmaier

Expected 4.2 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Daniel Altmaier serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zachary Svajda's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Zachary Svajda's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s projection rests largely on the model’s assessment of recent form, which is the dominant single factor tilting the match his way. A key factor to watch will be return efficiency early in sets, since small edges on break creation could decide a match where serves are otherwise similar.

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