Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 32

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Rank: #28
38%
VS

Mirra Andreeva

Rank: #5
62%
Expected Total Games: 21.3
Predicted Winner: Mirra Andreeva

Why the Model Favors Mirra Andreeva

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Head-to-head +11.2 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Overall strength +5.6 Mirra Andreeva
Age +5.3 Mirra Andreeva
Recent form +4.8 Mirra Andreeva
Overall record & opposition quality +4.3 Mirra Andreeva

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Mirra Andreeva. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ekaterina Alexandrova

  • Current #28 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #13 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-09-29

Mirra Andreeva

  • Current #5 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #5 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Form Index: 54.8
ELO Rating: 1819.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1786.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.3
Clay: 27.3
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 90.2

Mirra Andreeva

Form Index: 51.2
ELO Rating: 1952.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2002.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 180.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.1
Clay: 69.9
Grass: 40.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Ekaterina Alexandrova
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Mirra Andreeva
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Ekaterina Alexandrova
vs
0
Mirra Andreeva
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mirra Andreeva is favoured, with a 62% win probability to Ekaterina Alexandrova’s 38%, and the match is projected to last 21.3 games. The Round of 32 in Beijing brings together a higher-ranked favourite and an opponent with a head-to-head advantage.

Match Analysis

Alexandrova’s head-to-head edge is the clearest counterweight to Andreeva’s favouritism. It gives Alexandrova a matchup advantage, while Andreeva rates stronger overall and has the better hard-court profile. Andreeva is ranked fifth to Alexandrova’s 28th, and the age comparison also favours the younger player. Both have won twice in Beijing, but Andreeva’s latest win over Polina Kudermetova came in straight sets, while Alexandrova needed three sets against Diana Shnaider.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.3 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ekaterina Alexandrova - Mirra Andreeva) -3.0 Most likely spread: -4 (Mirra Andreeva wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The projection gives Alexandrova 2.7 aces and Andreeva 2.9, with 4.5 and 4.0 double faults respectively. Their serve profiles are almost identical, which points to similar ace totals, while the forecast puts Alexandrova slightly higher for double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.6 Most likely: 4 aces Per player: Ekaterina Alexandrova 2.7 + Mirra Andreeva 2.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.3 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Ekaterina Alexandrova 4.5 + Mirra Andreeva 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Expected 2.7 aces

Mirra Andreeva

Expected 2.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Expected 4.5 double faults

Mirra Andreeva

Expected 4.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

22.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ekaterina Alexandrova's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alexandrova’s head-to-head advantage is the specific reason this could go against the forecast. If it translates into the same matchup trouble for Andreeva, the ranking and recent straight-set win may not be enough to carry the favourite.

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