Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv vs Anadolu Efes Istanbul Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 28, 2026
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Why the Model Favors Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 81% for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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HOMEHapoel IBI Tel Aviv
AWAYAnadolu Efes Istanbul
Starting Five Matchup
Key Prediction Insights
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv is favored at home, with an 81% win probability. Elijah Bryant is projected to lead the hosts’ all-around contribution, while Dario Saric is Efes’ leading projected contributor.
Total Points & Spread Analysis
The expected total is 176 points, suggesting a productive scoring game. Hapoel is projected to win by 10 points, a margin that points to a relatively comfortable home victory.
Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).
Total Points · expected 176.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
Spread (Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv − Anadolu Efes Istanbul) · expected +10.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with Hapoel up 64 points and Efes up 12.
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).
EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings
See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.
View Full ELO RatingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bologna | 90 | 81 | +9 |
Anadolu Efes Istanbul
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas Istanbul | 89 | 80 | +9 |
Game Analysis
Home court is the strongest factor behind Hapoel’s forecast, with team-strength ratings also favoring the hosts. The model further points to an advantage for Hapoel in ballhandling, steals and fouls, so protecting possessions and limiting extra chances will matter. Hapoel is 5-2 after wins over Virtus Bologna, Panathinaikos and Besiktas, while Efes is 3-4.
Bryant is projected for 16.6 points and a 21.5 PIR, the strongest all-around profile among the listed starters. For Efes, Saric is projected for 13.7 points and 5.7 rebounds, while Matthew Strazel is projected for 12.8 points. Their scoring will need to keep pace with Hapoel’s home advantage and stronger projected team profile.
Final Prediction
Efes’s backcourt scoring could narrow the gap if it offsets Hapoel’s projected advantage in ballhandling, steals and fouls.
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