LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne vs Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz Prediction · EuroLeague 2026-27 Regular Season · October 30, 2026

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Home
73.0%
VS

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

Away
27.0%
Regular Season EuroLeague 2026-27

Why the Model Favors LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home court +14.3 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +9.4 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Scoring & shooting +2.0 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne
Ballhandling, steals & fouls +1.4 LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 73% for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

Per-player expected lines and full probability distributions, including PIR, EuroLeague's signature box-score metric. Click a player to view their full distributions.

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HOMELDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

PTS11.5 REB2.6 AST3.3 3PM1.4 PIR12.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS11.9 REB2.2 AST4.0 3PM2.1 PIR13.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.5 REB2.7 AST2.4 3PM1.3 PIR10.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS13.5 REB4.6 AST3.1 3PM1.1 PIR15.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS7.7 REB4.9 AST0.9 3PM0.0 PIR10.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

AWAYKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

PTS10.1 REB2.5 AST3.1 3PM1.6 PIR8.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.2 REB2.5 AST5.0 3PM0.9 PIR10.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.3 REB2.5 AST1.9 3PM1.1 PIR8.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS8.9 REB4.9 AST1.0 3PM0.8 PIR9.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)
PTS9.4 REB5.9 AST1.4 3PM0.1 PIR11.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(PIR > X)

Starting Five Matchup

1
Hugo Besson Guard
PTS
11.5
PIR
12.6
REB
2.6
VS
Kobi Simmons Guard
PTS
10.1
PIR
8.8
REB
2.5
2
Tremont Waters Guard
PTS
11.9
PIR
13.2
REB
2.2
VS
Damion Baugh Guard
PTS
9.2
PIR
10.2
REB
2.5
3
Both Gach Forward
PTS
9.5
PIR
10.3
REB
2.7
VS
Dj Stewart Forward
PTS
9.3
PIR
8.8
REB
2.5
4
Jae Crowder Forward
PTS
13.5
PIR
15.4
REB
4.6
VS
Tadas Sedekerskis Forward
PTS
8.9
PIR
9.4
REB
4.9
5
Joel Bolomboy Center
PTS
7.7
PIR
10.7
REB
4.9
VS
Kenneth Faried Center
PTS
9.4
PIR
11.8
REB
5.9
1-5 = projected starter slot, the order the model expects the five to be named · PTS = Projected Points · PIR = Performance Index Rating (all-round impact) · REB = Projected Rebounds

Key Prediction Insights

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne is favored at 73%, with home court and a stronger rating profile behind the call. Jae Crowder is projected to lead the hosts, while Kenneth Faried gives Baskonia a central presence inside.

Total Points & Spread Analysis

The expected total of 177 points suggests a relatively high-scoring game. ASVEL's projected six-point margin points to a competitive contest, with the hosts holding a modest cushion.

Full probability curves from our Poisson (total) and Negative-Binomial (spread) models: both the distribution (PDF) and the cumulative probability (CDF).

Total Points · expected 177.1

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

Spread (LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne − Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz) · expected +5.8

Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(≤ X)

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams' ratings are falling over the last five games, with ASVEL down 31 ELO points and Baskonia down 70.

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

-38 +14 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

-147 -42 over last 5 games

Season-relative ELO (0 = league-average team; resets each season).

EuroLeague ELO Power Rankings

See how every team stacks up: full ELO ratings, recent form and the season progression chart.

View Full ELO Ratings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne

1-1 in last 2
LW
OpponentPFPADiff
Zalgiris Kaunas 85 105 -20
Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade 82 75 +7

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz

0-2 in last 2
LL
OpponentPFPADiff
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens 79 85 -6
Real Madrid 86 104 -18

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest separator, and the rating comparison also favors ASVEL, a useful base for a side that is 3-5. The smaller scoring and ballhandling signals point the same way, suggesting a slight ASVEL advantage in shot production and possession control. That matters against a Baskonia team with a 1-7 record.

ASVEL's latest win over Partizan came between losses to Zalgiris and Real Madrid. Baskonia has lost each of its three listed recent games. Crowder is projected for 14 points and a 15 PIR, while Tremont Waters is projected for 12 points and 4 assists, giving ASVEL two scoring and creation options. For Baskonia, Damion Baugh is projected for 5 assists and Faried for 6 rebounds, putting pressure on their playmaking and interior work.

Final Prediction

Baskonia could change the forecast if Faried wins the rebounding matchup with Joel Bolomboy, helping offset ASVEL's home-court advantage.

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