Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Dortmund

Home Team
74%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 30 25 4 1 109 29 80 79
2 Dortmund 30 19 7 4 61 31 30 64
3 RB Leipzig 30 18 5 7 59 37 22 59
4 Stuttgart 30 17 5 8 62 42 20 56
5 Hoffenheim 30 16 6 8 59 44 15 54
6 Leverkusen 30 15 7 8 60 41 19 52
7 Freiburg 30 12 7 11 44 48 -4 43
8 Ein Frankfurt 30 11 9 10 55 57 -2 42
9 Augsburg 30 10 6 14 38 54 -16 36
10 Mainz 30 8 10 12 36 45 -9 34
11 Union Berlin 30 8 8 14 34 52 -18 32
12 FC Koln 30 7 10 13 44 51 -7 31
13 M'gladbach 30 7 10 13 36 50 -14 31
14 Hamburg 30 7 10 13 33 48 -15 31
15 Werder Bremen 30 8 7 15 35 53 -18 31
16 St Pauli 30 6 8 16 26 51 -25 26
17 Wolfsburg 30 6 6 18 41 66 -25 24
18 Heidenheim 30 4 7 19 33 66 -33 19

Recent Trends

Dortmund L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 0)

Freiburg W W L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.56
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 2

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.12
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund are clear favourites at home with a 74.0% chance of victory, and the expected goal spread points firmly towards a home win. The model also leans strongly towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0%. In the table, Dortmund sit 2nd on 64 points, chasing Bayern, while Freiburg are 7th with 43 points and fighting to stay in the European conversation.

Match Analysis

Dortmund come in from an inconsistent three-game run: defeat at Hoffenheim (1-2), a narrow home loss to Leverkusen (0-1), then a solid 2-0 win away at Stuttgart. Even in the losses they created chances – 14 shots against Leverkusen and 8 away to Hoffenheim – and the advanced metrics paint a stronger attacking picture than the raw results. Over their last five matches, they average 2.2 goals scored and just 1.2 conceded, backed by 2.562 expected goals per game and 1.256 expected goals against, with two clean sheets in that span. That blend of firepower and a reasonably secure defence explains their firm grip on 2nd place. Freiburg’s recent form has picked up after a difficult attacking spell. They edged Mainz 1-0 away and beat struggling Heidenheim 2-1 at home, either side of a spirited 2-3 home defeat to Bayern where they still produced 13 shots. But over the last five games, the broader trend is modest: only 0.6 goals scored per match and 1.4 conceded, with xG at 1.12 for and 1.676 against. That gap between chances created and chances allowed underlines why they’ve drifted to a negative goal difference (-4), even as they cling to 7th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction here, with a 64.0% probability. Two of Freiburg’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Bayern, 2-1 vs Heidenheim), while two of Dortmund’s last three were under 2.5 (0-1 vs Leverkusen, 2-0 vs Stuttgart), but Dortmund’s five‑game averages of 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus 2.562 xG for and 1.256 xG against, point to a game with chances. Freiburg’s low recent scoring (0.6 per game) is offset by 1.4 conceded and 1.676 xG against, suggesting Dortmund could push this over the line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.8 total corners, which fits both sides’ recent patterns. Dortmund’s last three produced 7, 10 and 7 corners respectively, while Freiburg’s yielded 9, 10 and 13, numbers consistent with teams that do create pressure phases even when not dominating. With Dortmund expected to attack at home and Freiburg capable of countering and forcing set pieces, the predicted corners total around 9–10 looks well aligned with their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.08, and that shots prediction is backed by recent numbers. Dortmund’s last three games saw them take 8, 14 and 5 shots, while facing 13, 11 and 13 – matches generally in the 18–26 shot range overall. Freiburg have been similarly busy, with 17, 8 and 13 efforts of their own across the last three, while conceding 13, 10 and 21. When you tie that volume to Dortmund’s high xG (2.562) and Freiburg’s 1.676 xG against, a mid‑20s total for expected shots fits the attacking patterns.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Dortmund wins by X goals. Negative = Freiburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Dortmund vs Freiburg with expected spread of +1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Dortmund vs Freiburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Dortmund -1.18, indicating the home side are expected to win by just over a goal on average. Recently, Dortmund’s last three have produced a goal difference of +1 overall (3 scored, 3 conceded), but their five‑game metrics show a stronger underlying margin. Freiburg, by contrast, average 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five, a negative swing that aligns with an expected spread in Dortmund’s favour and the 74.0% home win probability.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s superior attacking output, stronger xG profile and higher league position make them deserved favourites in this matchup. Freiburg have shown resilience and can keep this competitive, but their recent scoring struggles and defensive numbers suggest they’ll be under pressure. The key factor to watch is how quickly Dortmund can impose their attacking rhythm; if they get ahead early, the chances of that over 2.5 line being cleared will rise sharply.

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