Hoffenheim

Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1585 · #6 Bundesliga In line Updated May 10, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #6 of 18 51.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 5.1%
Champions League 33.2%
Europa League 19.0%
Relegation playoff 1.5%
Relegation 1.7%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Hoffenheim?

In line with the league 2025-26 · 28 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Hoffenheim's results were 4.1% easier to call than the Bundesliga average. How this is measured.

MarketHoffenheimLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 60.7% 55.6%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 67.9% 63.9%
Both teams to score 60.7% 59.9%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Bundesliga #6 1529 1654 1585
2024-25 Bundesliga #14 1518 1518 1416
2023-24 Bundesliga #9 1471 1580 1509
2022-23 Bundesliga #14 1480 1547 1447
2021-22 Bundesliga #15 1534 1586 1427
2020-21 Bundesliga #10 1529 1550 1498
2019-20 Bundesliga #6 1482 1568 1567
2018-19 Bundesliga #7 1480 1614 1515
2017-18 Bundesliga #4 1518 1586 1583
2016-17 Bundesliga #3 1498 1653 1639
2015-16 Bundesliga #14 1482 1525 1450
2014-15 Bundesliga #13 1520 1572 1452

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 09, 2026 vs Werder Bremen W Hoffenheim 72.7% · draw 14.5% W ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Stuttgart W Hoffenheim 46.8% · draw 23.0% D ✗
Apr 25, 2026 at Hamburg W Hoffenheim 40.3% · draw 23.8% W ✓
Apr 18, 2026 vs Dortmund L Hoffenheim 31.2% · draw 24.4% W ✗
Apr 10, 2026 at Augsburg W Hoffenheim 50.9% · draw 22.4% D ✗
Apr 04, 2026 vs Mainz W Hoffenheim 61.1% · draw 19.6% L ✗
Mar 20, 2026 at RB Leipzig L Hoffenheim 29.7% · draw 22.6% L ✓
Mar 14, 2026 vs Wolfsburg W Hoffenheim 74.8% · draw 13.6% D ✗
Mar 07, 2026 at Heidenheim W Hoffenheim 57.1% · draw 20.3% W ✓
Feb 28, 2026 vs St Pauli W Hoffenheim 75.8% · draw 13.1% L ✗

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/hoffenheim">Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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