Bundesliga 2025-2026: Dortmund vs St Pauli Prediction - 17 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Dortmund

Home Team
94%
VS

St Pauli

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 17 15 2 0 66 13 53 47
2 Dortmund 17 10 6 1 32 15 17 36
3 RB Leipzig 16 10 2 4 32 19 13 32
4 Stuttgart 17 10 2 5 32 25 7 32
5 Hoffenheim 16 9 3 4 34 21 13 30
6 Leverkusen 16 9 2 5 34 24 10 29
7 Ein Frankfurt 17 7 5 5 35 36 -1 26
8 Freiburg 17 6 5 6 27 29 -2 23
9 Union Berlin 17 6 5 6 23 26 -3 23
10 M'gladbach 17 5 4 8 23 29 -6 19
11 Wolfsburg 17 5 3 9 26 37 -11 18
12 FC Koln 17 4 5 8 25 29 -4 17
13 Werder Bremen 16 4 5 7 18 31 -13 17
14 Hamburg 16 4 4 8 17 27 -10 16
15 Augsburg 17 4 3 10 18 33 -15 15
16 Mainz 17 2 6 9 17 29 -12 12
17 St Pauli 16 3 3 10 14 28 -14 12
18 Heidenheim 17 3 3 11 16 38 -22 12

Recent Trends

Dortmund W D W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 2 - 0)

St Pauli L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Dortmund

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 0.91
Clean Sheets 3

St Pauli

xG (avg) 0.59
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Dortmund is strongly favored to win against St Pauli with a commanding 94% probability. Despite the high likelihood of a home victory, the match is expected to have less than 2.5 goals, with a 49% chance of exceeding this mark. Currently sitting in second place in the Bundesliga standings, Dortmund is well-positioned against 17th-placed St Pauli.

Match Analysis

Dortmund enters the fixture on a positive note, having secured two wins and one draw in their last three games. Their recent 3-0 victory over Werder Bremen and a solid 2-0 win against M'gladbach highlight their defensive resilience, with three clean sheets in their last five matches. Dortmund has been consistent in attack, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their recent outings, supported by an expected goals metric of 2.062. In contrast, St Pauli has struggled, managing only one win, one draw, and a loss in their last three fixtures. Their offensive output remains low, with an average of 0.8 goals scored per game and an expected goals figure of 0.592, indicating difficulties in creating scoring opportunities. Defensively, they have been vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, which might be exploited by Dortmund's potent attack.

Final Prediction

Dortmund's superior form and solid defensive performances give them a clear edge over St Pauli. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and capitalize on scoring chances will be crucial. A key factor to watch during the game will be Dortmund's ability to break down St Pauli's defense and convert opportunities into goals, potentially securing a comfortable win.

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