Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction - 16 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Freiburg

Home Team
27%
VS

RB Leipzig

Away Team
50%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: -0.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 33 27 5 1 117 35 82 86
2 Dortmund 33 21 7 5 68 34 34 70
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 65 43 22 65
4 Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 69 47 22 61
5 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 65 48 17 61
6 Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 67 46 21 58
7 Freiburg 33 12 8 13 47 56 -9 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 59 63 -4 43
9 Augsburg 33 12 7 14 45 57 -12 43
10 Mainz 33 9 10 14 42 53 -11 37
11 Hamburg 33 9 10 14 39 53 -14 37
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 40 58 -18 36
13 M'gladbach 33 8 11 14 38 53 -15 35
14 FC Koln 33 7 11 15 48 58 -10 32
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 37 58 -21 32
16 Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 42 68 -26 26
17 Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 41 70 -29 26
18 St Pauli 33 6 8 19 28 57 -29 26

Recent Trends

Freiburg L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)

RB Leipzig W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Freiburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.81
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.71
# Clean Sheets: 1

RB Leipzig

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.09
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

RB Leipzig come into Freiburg as clear favourites, with a 50.0% chance of taking all three points against a home win probability of 27.0% and a 23.0% chance of a draw. Leipzig sit 3rd in the Bundesliga on 65 points, chasing Champions League security, while Freiburg are 7th on 44 points and trying to cling to the European pack. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at a 60.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Freiburg’s recent form has been patchy: a 3-2 defeat at Hamburg, a 1-1 home draw with struggling Wolfsburg, and a heavy 4-0 loss at Dortmund. The pattern is worrying defensively – eight goals conceded in those three games – and their goal difference over the season (-9 with 47 scored and 56 conceded) underlines that fragility. Still, they’ve found the net in two of those three matches, and over the last five games they average 1.6 goals scored with 1.814 expected goals, suggesting they do create enough to trouble opponents. Leipzig are also inconsistent, but with a higher ceiling. They beat Union Berlin 3-1 and St Pauli 2-1 at home, either side of a bruising 4-1 defeat away at Leverkusen. That mirrors their season-long profile: strong going forward (65 goals in 33 matches) but not watertight at the back (43 conceded). Their last five outings show 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average, with 1.708 xG for and a fairly high 2.094 xG against, hinting at open matches where both sides get chances. Against a Freiburg side that leaks opportunities, Leipzig’s sharper attack should tilt the balance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% looks well backed by recent scorelines. Two of Freiburg’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-2 at Hamburg and 4-0 at Dortmund), with only the 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg staying under. Leipzig have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-1 vs Union Berlin, 4-1 at Leverkusen), with just the 2-1 win over St Pauli narrowly under the line. With Freiburg averaging 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Leipzig on 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus both sides posting xG figures around or above 1.7 for and 1.7–2.1 against, the under 2.5 looks less likely than another open, chance-filled contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.43 total corners, suggesting a moderately busy afternoon from set plays. Freiburg’s last three matches produced corner counts of 4-2, 1-7 and 0-5, showing they often concede territory and allow opponents to rack up corners, especially against stronger sides. Leipzig, meanwhile, saw 10-4, 3-7 and 3-5 in their last three, showing they can both force and face plenty of corners in end-to-end games. With Leipzig expected to press and spend more time in Freiburg’s half, the predicted corners total fits a match where the away side carries more attacking weight.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.46 indicates a lively attacking game rather than a cagey one. Freiburg’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 19 (Hamburg), 24 (Wolfsburg) and 24 (Dortmund), while Leipzig’s produced 25 (Union Berlin), 37 (Leverkusen) and 20 (St Pauli). That matches an overall shots prediction in the mid‑20s, with Leipzig’s attack likely to contribute the larger share. Those volumes align closely with the xG numbers for both sides and support the idea that Leipzig will create enough to justify their favourite status.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Freiburg wins by X goals. Negative = RB Leipzig wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Freiburg vs RB Leipzig with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.41 in favour of RB Leipzig, meaning the away side are expected to edge the game by roughly two‑fifths of a goal. Recently, Freiburg are -3 on goal difference across their last three (2-3, 1-1, 0-4), while Leipzig are even (3-1, 1-4, 2-1), reinforcing the notion that Leipzig are the more balanced outfit. With Leipzig boasting a superior league position (3rd vs 7th), a better overall goal difference (+22 vs -9), and higher attacking output, the expected spread aligns well with the 50.0% away‑win probability.

Final Prediction

Leipzig’s stronger league campaign, superior goal difference and more reliable attacking numbers give them the edge going into this one, even away from home. Freiburg’s defensive shakiness, especially against top-half sides, looks like the key vulnerability. The main factor to watch will be how Freiburg cope with Leipzig’s sustained pressure and shot volume; if the visitors convert their chances at anything like their recent rate, they should justify their status as favourites.

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