Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Freiburg Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hamburg

Home Team
49%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
27%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Hamburg W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Freiburg D L W W L

  • Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 2.19
Clean Sheets 0

Freiburg

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Hamburg are narrowly favoured to take all three points at home, with a 49.0% chance of victory against Freiburg’s 27.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals (58.0% chance), suggesting an open game despite both sides’ recent struggles. Freiburg come into this clash 7th in the Bundesliga on 44 points, while Hamburg sit 12th on 34 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Hamburg’s last three outings have been a mixed bag: a vital 2-1 away win at Eintracht Frankfurt was sandwiched between a 1-2 home loss to Hoffenheim and a 1-3 defeat at Werder Bremen. They’ve at least found the net in all three, but six goals conceded in that spell underline why they’re on 51 goals against for the season. The underlying numbers back this up: over the last five games they’ve conceded an average of 1.4 goals, with an even worse 2.192 expected goals against, and no clean sheets in that run. Freiburg’s recent form is equally uneven. A heavy 0-4 defeat away to Dortmund exposed their defensive frailty, but they edged Heidenheim 2-1 at home and ground out a 1-1 draw with Wolfsburg. Over their last five, they’re averaging just 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with 1.032 xG for and 1.704 xG against, plus only one clean sheet. That hints at a side that still creates something but lacks cutting edge and defensive solidity, particularly on their travels.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 58.0%, and recent scorelines support a game that can open up. Two out of Hamburg’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3, 3, and 4 total goals), while Freiburg have seen two of their last three hit at least three goals (3, 4, and 2). With Hamburg averaging 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Freiburg at 0.6 for and 2.0 against over the last five — both underpinned by xG figures above 1.0 per game — the balance points more towards over 2.5 than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.67, pointing towards a roughly average Bundesliga game in terms of set-piece volume. Hamburg’s last three have produced 8, 8 and 10 total corners, while Freiburg’s have seen 8, 5 and 9, which fits neatly with this corners prediction. Both sides have recently allowed the opposition more corners than they win, suggesting a match shaped by counter-attacks and spells of pressure rather than relentless, high-press dominance, aligning with the predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stands at 25.83, implying a relatively active attacking contest without becoming a total shoot-out. Hamburg’s recent matches saw combined shot counts of 17, 27 and 29, whereas Freiburg’s produced 24, 24 and 30 attempts, all in line with this shots prediction. Those volumes marry up with the xG numbers for both teams, indicating that while finishing has been inconsistent, the chance creation is solid enough to justify the expected shots total.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hamburg wins by X goals. Negative = Freiburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hamburg vs Freiburg with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hamburg vs Freiburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is a slim +0.15 in Hamburg’s favour, meaning the home side are expected to edge it, but only just. Hamburg’s last three show a combined goal difference of -2 (4 scored, 6 conceded), while Freiburg’s is also -2 (3 for, 5 against), underscoring how little separates them at the moment. This expected spread lines up with the near-coin-flip home win probability and reflects Hamburg’s slight edge at home against a Freiburg side that has recently shipped goals, especially away from home.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s marginal advantage comes from home ground, a slightly more convincing attacking output lately, and Freiburg’s vulnerability on the road. With both defences prone to lapses and neither side posting strong clean-sheet numbers, the key factor to watch will be who takes control in both boxes — particularly whether Hamburg can convert their expected chances into goals against a Freiburg back line that has been leaking too often.

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