Bundesliga 2025-2026: M'gladbach vs Dortmund Prediction - 3 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

M'gladbach

Home Team
23%
VS

Dortmund

Away Team
56%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: -0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 31 26 4 1 113 32 81 82
2 Dortmund 31 20 7 4 65 31 34 67
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 62 38 24 62
4 Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 63 43 20 57
5 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 61 45 16 57
6 Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 62 42 20 55
7 Ein Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 56 58 -2 43
8 Freiburg 31 12 7 12 44 52 -8 43
9 Augsburg 31 10 7 14 39 55 -16 37
10 Mainz 31 8 10 13 39 49 -10 34
11 M'gladbach 31 7 11 13 36 50 -14 32
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 36 54 -18 32
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 35 55 -20 32
14 FC Koln 31 7 10 14 45 53 -8 31
15 Hamburg 31 7 10 14 34 50 -16 31
16 St Pauli 31 6 8 17 26 53 -27 26
17 Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 41 66 -25 25
18 Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 35 66 -31 22

Recent Trends

M'gladbach D D L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 3 - 3)

Dortmund W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

M'gladbach

xG (avg) 1.32
xGA (avg) 0.97
Clean Sheets 1

Dortmund

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Borussia Dortmund travel to Mönchengladbach as clear favourites, with a 56.0% probability of an away win against just 23.0% for the hosts and 21.0% for the draw. The model points towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 55.0% probability. Dortmund sit 2nd in the Bundesliga on 67 points, while M’gladbach are 11th on 32 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

M’gladbach come into this on a run of three without a win, but they have tightened up defensively: a 0-0 at Wolfsburg, 1-1 at home to Mainz and a narrow 1-0 defeat away to RB Leipzig. Across their last five games they have conceded only 0.8 goals on average, with expected goals against at 0.97, underlining a more compact, controlled approach. Going forward, 1.4 goals per game and 1.324 xG show they are creating steadily rather than explosively. Dortmund, by contrast, remain more volatile but with a higher ceiling. They thrashed Freiburg 4-0 at home, but that result is bookended by a 2-1 loss at Hoffenheim and a 1-0 home defeat to Leverkusen. Over their last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with 1.412 xG for but a relatively high 1.854 xG against, suggesting they allow chances even when the scoreline is kind. That profile – more firepower but more risk – explains why the away side are favourites but not guaranteed comfort.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

M'gladbach
Goals in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 55.0% chance of at least three goals. Interestingly, all of M’gladbach’s last three matches have gone under 2.5 (0, 2 and 1 total goals), reflecting their recent defensive discipline. Dortmund’s last three games have been mixed: one clearly over (4-0 vs Freiburg) and two unders (1-2, 0-1), but their five-game averages of 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus both teams’ xG profiles, support the idea that this matchup could open up more than recent Gladbach scorelines suggest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Corners in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at a modest 8.89 total. M’gladbach’s last three matches produced 13, 6 and 15 corners overall, with them often conceding more (5-8, 0-6, 4-11), which hints at long spells of defending. Dortmund’s games have been steadier on this front, with 5-0, 3-4 and 5-5 in corners. With Dortmund likely to be on the front foot and Gladbach prepared to soak pressure, the predicted corners figure looks in line with two sides who attack but not relentlessly from wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

M'gladbach
Shots in last 5 matches
Dortmund
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.08, which fits how these sides have been playing. M’gladbach’s last three outings featured 10, 9 and 15 attempts for, but they allowed 12, 17 and 24 shots, suggesting they may again be under pressure. Dortmund, meanwhile, posted 17, 8 and 14 shots themselves while conceding 7, 13 and 11. That balance of attacking intent and defensive looseness marries well with the shots prediction and with both teams’ xG numbers.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = M'gladbach wins by X goals. Negative = Dortmund wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for M'gladbach vs Dortmund with expected spread of -0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for M'gladbach vs Dortmund
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.84 (home minus away), meaning Dortmund are expected to win by just under a goal on average. Over their last three, M’gladbach have a combined goal difference of -1 (1 scored, 2 conceded), while Dortmund sit level (5 scored, 3 conceded) but with more volatility in the scorelines. The expected spread lines up with Dortmund’s superior league position, stronger attacking averages and higher win probability, even if Gladbach’s recent defensive efforts suggest it might be closer than a routine away win.

Final Prediction

Dortmund’s edge comes from their greater attacking punch, deeper squad quality and far stronger season-long record, all reflected in the 56.0% win probability and the negative expected spread. M’gladbach’s improved defensive organisation gives them a chance to frustrate, but they will need to raise their attacking output to match Dortmund’s threat. A key factor to watch will be how often Dortmund can turn their territorial dominance into clear chances against a Gladbach side that has recently specialised in low-scoring, attritional contests.

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