Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Heidenheim Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
49%
VS
Heidenheim
Away Team
27%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5:
55%
Under 2.5:
45%
Goal:
55%
No Goal:
45%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 63 | 12 | 51 | 44 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 33 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 24 | 10 | 29 |
| 5 | Stuttgart | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 29 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 27 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 23 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | M'gladbach | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 17 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Wolfsburg | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 14 |
| 16 | St Pauli | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 12 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 12 |
| 18 | Mainz | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 9 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
Heidenheim
- Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 1)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.80
# Clean Sheets:
1
Heidenheim
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.88
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
Mainz are predicted to emerge victorious with a 49.0% probability of winning against Heidenheim. The game is anticipated to feature over 2.5 goals with a 55.0% likelihood. Currently, Mainz are struggling at the bottom of the Bundesliga table in 18th position, while Heidenheim sit just one spot above them in 17th.
Match Analysis
Mainz have shown resilience in their recent matches, securing three consecutive draws, including an impressive 2-2 away draw against league leaders Bayern Munich. This suggests a fighting spirit, but their lack of victories is a concern. The team has averaged 1.0 goals per game but has shown potential with an expected goal tally of 1.876. Defensively, Mainz have conceded an average of 1.4 goals, which they will need to improve to climb out of the relegation zone.
Heidenheim, on the other hand, have struggled more significantly, with recent performances including a heavy 4-0 defeat to Bayern Munich and a narrow 2-1 loss to St Pauli. Their attack has been less potent, averaging just 0.8 goals per game. Furthermore, their defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match. The expected goals data suggests they have been overperforming in defense but underperforming in attack, with an expected goals scored of just 0.732.
Final Prediction
Mainz have the edge due to recent performances against tougher opponents and a better expected goals metric. Heidenheim's defensive frailties and lack of clean sheets could be exploited by Mainz. Keep an eye on Mainz's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could be the key factor in determining the outcome of this crucial relegation battle.