Bundesliga 2026-2027: Paderborn vs Hamburg Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Paderborn

Home Team
48%
VS

Hamburg

Away Team
26%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 11.1
Expected Shots: 31.5
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Paderborn

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Paderborn
Defense +3.5 Paderborn
Attack +2.3 Hamburg
Chance creation (xG data) +0.6 Paderborn
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.6 Hamburg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Paderborn. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Hamburg defense +8.2 Over
Paderborn defense +4.4 Over
Form & results +3.5 Under
Hamburg attack & chance creation +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 62% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

Paderborn D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)

Hamburg W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paderborn

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 1.81
Clean Sheets 0

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.04
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Paderborn are the most likely winners at 48%, with a draw at 27% and a Hamburg win at 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 62% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator in a close matchup. Paderborn’s defence has a slight comparative edge, while Hamburg’s attack and chance creation provide a counterweight. Paderborn have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches, though, and their latest result was a 2-2 draw away to Werder Bremen. Hamburg arrive on a run of three straight wins, most recently beating Stuttgart 1-0. Their away defending remains a concern: Hamburg have conceded an average of 3.0 goals away from home, despite allowing 1.6 expected goals. Paderborn’s home scoring average of 1.0 is below their 1.4 expected goals, suggesting they have created more than they have converted.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paderborn
Goals in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 62%. The main reason is the defensive vulnerability on both sides, particularly Hamburg’s away record and Paderborn’s failure to keep a clean sheet in five matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paderborn
Corners in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 11.1 corners in total. Recent matches offer scope for a busy count, with Paderborn’s latest producing eight corners and Hamburg’s nine.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paderborn
Shots in last 5 matches
Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 32 shots. Both teams have recorded high shot counts recently, including 29 in Paderborn’s draw with Werder Bremen and 38 in Hamburg’s win over Stuttgart.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Paderborn wins by X goals. Negative = Hamburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Paderborn vs Hamburg with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Paderborn vs Hamburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Paderborn are favoured by about 0.4 goals. That narrow margin reflects the home advantage, with Hamburg’s winning streak keeping the visitors firmly in contention.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s recent run could overturn the forecast if their attack makes better use of its chances than Paderborn have managed at home. Conversely, their away defensive record gives Paderborn a clear route to goals.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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