Paderborn
2. Bundesliga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #3 of 18 in 2. Bundesliga 62 pts · 18W–8D–8L · GD +14
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full 2. Bundesliga simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Paderborn?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 29 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Paderborn's results were 9.3% easier to call than the 2. Bundesliga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Paderborn | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 62.1% | 47.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 53.6% |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 61.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2. Bundesliga | #3 | 1518 | 1624 | 1588 |
| 2024-25 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1571 | 1630 | 1554 |
| 2023-24 | 2. Bundesliga | #7 | 1506 | 1573 | 1556 |
| 2022-23 | 2. Bundesliga | #6 | 1555 | 1613 | 1540 |
| 2021-22 | 2. Bundesliga | #5 | 1529 | 1609 | 1550 |
| 2020-21 | 2. Bundesliga | #7 | 1530 | 1592 | 1535 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1482 | 1482 | 1298 |
| 2018-19 | 2. Bundesliga | #1 | 1485 | 1628 | 1570 |
| 2014-15 | Bundesliga | #18 | 1498 | 1551 | 1364 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Darmstadt | W Paderborn 38.2% · draw 29.0% | W ✓ |
| May 08, 2026 | vs Karlsruhe | W Paderborn 67.3% · draw 18.7% | D ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Elversberg | L Paderborn 28.6% · draw 29.9% | L ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Schalke 04 | W Paderborn 38.1% · draw 31.1% | L ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Hannover | L Paderborn 28.8% · draw 29.7% | D ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Magdeburg | W Paderborn 51.3% · draw 25.4% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Greuther Furth | W Paderborn 52.5% · draw 24.9% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Dresden | W Paderborn 53.4% · draw 25.8% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at Bielefeld | W Paderborn 38.7% · draw 29.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Braunschweig | W Paderborn 60.1% · draw 22.8% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The 2. Bundesliga title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
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