La Liga 2025-2026: Getafe vs Mallorca Prediction - 13 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Getafe

Home Team
52%
VS

Mallorca

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 22.9
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 35 30 1 4 91 31 60 91
2 Real Madrid 35 24 5 6 70 33 37 77
3 Villarreal 35 21 6 8 65 40 25 69
4 Ath Madrid 35 19 6 10 58 38 20 63
5 Betis 35 13 15 7 54 43 11 54
6 Celta 35 13 11 11 49 44 5 50
7 Getafe 35 13 6 16 28 36 -8 45
8 Sociedad 35 11 11 13 54 55 -1 44
9 Betis 35 13 5 17 40 51 -11 44
10 Vallecano 35 10 13 12 36 42 -6 43
11 Osasuna 35 11 9 15 42 45 -3 42
12 Valencia 35 11 9 15 38 50 -12 42
13 Sevilla 35 11 7 17 43 56 -13 40
14 Elche 35 9 12 14 46 54 -8 39
15 Mallorca 35 10 9 16 43 52 -9 39
16 Espanol 35 10 9 16 38 53 -15 39
17 Girona 35 9 12 14 37 52 -15 39
18 Alaves 35 9 10 16 41 54 -13 37
19 Levante 35 9 9 17 41 57 -16 36
20 Oviedo 35 6 11 18 26 54 -28 29

Recent Trends

Getafe D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 1)

Mallorca D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Getafe

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 1.01
Clean Sheets 2

Mallorca

xG (avg) 0.82
xGA (avg) 2.15
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Getafe are slight but clear favourites here, with a 52.0% chance of victory compared to Mallorca’s 25.0%, and a draw at 23.0%. The model leans towards a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (41.0% chance of over, so stronger on the “under”), in what looks like a tight, low-scoring contest between 7th-placed Getafe (45 points) and 15th-placed Mallorca (39 points).

Match Analysis

Getafe come into this on a three-game winless run (two defeats and a draw), but the pattern is familiar: stubborn, low-scoring games. They have failed to score in any of their last three outings – 0-0 at Oviedo, then back-to-back 0-2 home defeats to Vallecano and Barcelona – yet they have not been overrun, keeping matches close and cagey. Their last five games show they score on average 0.8 goals and concede 1.0, with expected goals for (0.998) and against (1.01) almost perfectly balanced, underlining how tight their contests tend to be. Two clean sheets in that span show their defensive structure still travels well. Mallorca’s recent run has been slightly more open but equally modest in terms of cutting edge: a 1-1 home draw with high-flying Villarreal, a gritty 1-0 win away at Girona, and a 1-2 defeat at Alaves. They average 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded over the last five, yet their xG numbers – 0.82 for and a hefty 2.148 against – suggest they’ve been allowing plenty of chances and relying on opponents’ wastefulness and their goalkeeping. With a negative goal difference on the season (-9) and sitting in 15th, they look more fragile than Getafe, especially away from home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Goals in last 5 matches
The call is firmly for under 2.5, in line with the model’s lean away from the 41.0% over 2.5 prediction. All three of Getafe’s recent matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0, 2 and 2 total goals), and only one of Mallorca’s last three – the 1-2 loss at Alaves – has gone over 2.5. With Getafe averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Mallorca at 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, alongside relatively modest xG figures (0.998 vs 1.01 for Getafe, 0.82 vs 2.148 for Mallorca), this under 2.5 call fits a game likely decided by one goal.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.28, pointing to a mid-range corners prediction rather than an end-to-end barrage. Getafe’s last three produced corner counts of 9-1, 4-1 and 6-3, showing they can rack up corners through territorial pressure even when they don’t score. Mallorca’s games have seen 5-4, 2-5 and 4-9 in corners, with them often conceding more as they sit deeper and absorb pressure. That blend – Getafe pushing at home, Mallorca defending lower – supports an expectation around the predicted corners figure, without suggesting an extreme tally.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches
Mallorca
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots in this match is 22.87, a solid but not explosive shots prediction. Getafe’s last three saw them record 22, 13 and 4 attempts (39 in total) while facing 8, 10 and 13 (31 faced), numbers consistent with their balanced xG profile and generally controlled games. Mallorca posted 18, 8 and 4 shots (30) while allowing 7, 14 and 15 (36 faced), which matches their higher xG against. Combining these, the expected shots figure around 23 feels right for a match where both sides create, but without relentless bombardment.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Getafe wins by X goals. Negative = Mallorca wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Getafe vs Mallorca with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Getafe vs Mallorca
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Getafe -0.15, a narrow expected spread that still tilts towards the home side. Over their last three, Getafe’s goal difference is -4 (0-0, 0-2, 0-2), but against strong or awkward opponents, while Mallorca’s is -1 (1-1, 1-0, 1-2), reflecting slightly better recent results but shakier underlying numbers. With Getafe’s defensive stability, Mallorca’s higher xG conceded, and a 52.0% home-win probability against just 25.0% for the away side, the small positive spread for Getafe accurately reflects a likely one-goal margin if they do edge it.

Final Prediction

Getafe’s edge comes from structure and control: they concede few clear chances, their xG balance is steady, and at home they should be able to pin Mallorca back over long spells. Mallorca’s vulnerability lies in the volume of chances they give up, as shown by their 2.148 xG conceded per game in recent weeks. The key factor to watch will be whether Getafe can finally turn territorial and set-piece pressure into a goal in a match that has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring home win.

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