Alaves
La Liga · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #8 of 20 51.2 expected pts · currently 11 pts after 8 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 20 in La Liga 43 pts · 11W-10D-17L · GD -12
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full La Liga simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Alaves?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 30 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Alaves's results were 16.4% harder to call than the La Liga average. How this is measured.
| Market | Alaves | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 40.0% | 51.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 58.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 55.6% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | #11 | 1522 | 1561 | 1478 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | #9 | 1518 | 1531 | 1499 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | #11 | 1482 | 1529 | 1480 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | #9 | 1482 | 1502 | 1499 |
| 2022-23 | Segunda División | #4 | 1532 | 1620 | 1587 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | #20 | 1466 | 1474 | 1356 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | #12 | 1471 | 1503 | 1435 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | #19 | 1518 | 1518 | 1394 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | #16 | 1478 | 1579 | 1435 |
| 2017-18 | La Liga | #13 | 1482 | 1512 | 1494 |
| 2016-17 | La Liga | #7 | 1502 | 1564 | 1561 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Atlético Madrid | L Alaves 31.1% · draw 25.9% | L ✓ |
| Sep 19, 2026 | at Athletic Bilbao | L Alaves 29.5% · draw 28.0% | D ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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