La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Girona Prediction - 11 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Vallecano

Home Team
54%
VS

Girona

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 34 29 1 4 89 31 58 88
2 Real Madrid 34 24 5 5 70 31 39 77
3 Villarreal 34 21 5 8 64 39 25 68
4 Ath Madrid 34 19 6 9 58 37 21 63
5 Betis 34 13 14 7 52 41 11 53
6 Celta 34 12 11 11 48 44 4 47
7 Getafe 34 13 5 16 28 36 -8 44
8 Betis 34 13 5 16 40 50 -10 44
9 Sociedad 34 11 10 13 52 53 -1 43
10 Osasuna 34 11 9 14 40 42 -2 42
11 Vallecano 34 10 12 12 35 41 -6 42
12 Valencia 34 10 9 15 37 50 -13 39
13 Espanol 34 10 9 15 37 51 -14 39
14 Elche 34 9 11 14 45 53 -8 38
15 Mallorca 34 10 8 16 42 51 -9 38
16 Girona 34 9 11 14 36 51 -15 38
17 Sevilla 34 10 7 17 41 55 -14 37
18 Alaves 34 9 9 16 40 53 -13 36
19 Levante 34 8 9 17 38 55 -17 33
20 Oviedo 34 6 10 18 26 54 -28 28

Recent Trends

Vallecano W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 0)

Girona L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

xG (avg) 2.20
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 3

Girona

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 1.90
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are favoured to take all three points here, with a 54.0% chance of a home win against Girona’s 23.0% likelihood of an away victory and a 22.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a Vallecano victory in a relatively open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0%. In the table, Vallecano sit 11th on 42 points, four clear of 16th-placed Girona on 38, adding extra weight to home advantage.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this one in quietly impressive form: unbeaten in their last three, with wins over Getafe (2-0 away) and Espanyol (1-0 at home) and a chaotic 3-3 draw against Sociedad. That run shows both resilience and attacking punch, backed up by strong underlying numbers – they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded over their last five, with an even healthier 2.198 xG for and 1.432 xG against, plus three clean sheets. The pattern is of a side creating plenty, generally defending solidly, and capable of controlling games at home. Girona arrive in far shakier form after three straight defeats: 0-1 at home to Mallorca, 1-2 away at Valencia and 2-3 at home to Betis. They’ve at least stayed competitive on the scoreboard, but the advanced metrics underline their problems – just 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded on average over the last five, with 1.214 xG for but a worrying 1.902 xG against, and only one clean sheet. That gap between chances created and chances allowed is exactly where this game threatens to tilt in Vallecano’s favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction edges it with a 51.0% probability, suggesting a slight lean towards a more open contest. Two of Vallecano’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Sociedad, 2-0 vs Getafe under, 1-0 vs Espanyol under), while Girona have also seen two of their last three go over (3-2 vs Betis, 2-1 vs Valencia, 1-0 vs Mallorca under). With Vallecano averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Girona at 1.0 for and 1.4 against, supported by xG figures that point to chances at both ends, over 2.5 looks slightly more likely than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a reasonably busy game on the flanks, with expected total corners set at 9.49. Vallecano’s last three have produced 5, 10 and 7 corners respectively, while Girona’s have seen 7, 8 and 4, all hovering around that 9–10 mark. Both sides have recently shown an inclination to attack – Vallecano piling on shots at home, Girona often chasing games – so the predicted corners tally fits teams that are prepared to push forward and work crossing positions rather than sit deep.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction comes in at 25.61 total efforts, which matches what we’ve seen from both teams. Vallecano’s recent matches have featured 23, 37 and 32 shots combined, while Girona’s last three have produced 22, 19 and 16 efforts. Given Vallecano’s strong attacking xG (2.198) and Girona’s habit of conceding good chances (1.902 xG against), the expected shots figure reflects a match where the home side should generate a healthy volume, with Girona contributing enough attempts of their own to keep that total high.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Vallecano wins by X goals. Negative = Girona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Vallecano vs Girona with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Vallecano vs Girona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.61 in Vallecano’s favour, indicating the home team are projected to win by roughly a single goal. Over the last three games, Vallecano have a combined goal difference of +3 (6 scored, 3 conceded), while Girona’s is -3 (3 scored, 6 conceded), which aligns closely with that expected spread. Coupled with Vallecano’s superior recent defensive record and higher attacking xG, the model’s goal spread prediction ties neatly into the 54.0% home-win probability.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s recent balance of solid defending, strong chance creation and home advantage gives them a clear edge over a Girona side trending downward and conceding too many opportunities. If Vallecano maintain their current xG levels and Girona don’t tighten up, the home side should justify their favourite tag. A key factor to watch will be how early Girona can settle defensively; if they allow Vallecano to establish control and rack up shots, the match could swing decisively towards the hosts.

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