Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Le Havre Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Angers

Home Team
36%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
38%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 27 20 3 4 61 23 38 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 54 27 27 59
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 49 34 15 53
4 Marseille 29 16 4 9 58 38 20 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 43 29 14 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 49 41 8 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 50 43 7 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 46 34 12 43
9 Lorient 29 9 11 9 38 44 -6 38
10 Toulouse 29 10 7 12 39 39 0 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 37 43 -6 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 37 45 -8 35
13 Angers 29 9 6 14 25 39 -14 33
14 Le Havre 29 6 11 12 24 37 -13 29
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 34 56 -22 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 23 37 -14 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 24 45 -21 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 26 63 -37 15

Recent Trends

Angers L D L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)

Le Havre D D L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 0.80
xGA (avg) 1.19
Clean Sheets 2

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.83
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Le Havre are given a slight edge here, with a 38.0% chance of victory against Angers’ 36.0%, while the draw sits at 26.0%, making this effectively a coin flip between the visitors and a stalemate. The model leans towards a Le Havre win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% for over 2.5, so a marginal tilt to the under), in a game where fine margins should decide it. In the table, Angers are 13th on 33 points, just four clear of 14th-placed Le Havre on 29, underlining how pivotal this is in the lower half.

Match Analysis

Angers come into the match on a three-game winless run: a 1-2 defeat at Rennes, a goalless home draw with Lyon and a heavy 1-5 loss away to Lens. The pattern is of a team struggling to score (just one goal in those three fixtures), but not completely collapsing defensively except in that Lens game. Their last five matches back this up: they average only 0.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, with 0.8 expected goals (xG) for and 1.19 xG against – numbers that point to tight, controlled contests rather than wild, open affairs. Two clean sheets in that span show they can shut games down when needed. Le Havre, meanwhile, have drawn their last two (both 1-1 against Nice and Auxerre) after a 2-3 defeat away to Paris FC. They are more volatile than Angers: three straight games with both teams scoring, and five goals allowed in their last two away matches. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged 0.6 goals scored and a worrying 1.8 conceded, with 1.226 xG for and 1.83 xG against – creating slightly more than Angers going forward, but giving up much more at the back. That fragility is why, despite their slight edge in win probability, this still projects as a low-scoring grind rather than a free-flowing spectacle.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 goals, despite the over 2.5 probability sitting at 46.0%, reflecting a cautious over 2.5 prediction that doesn’t quite get over the line. Across their last three, Angers have seen one match over 2.5 goals (the 1-5 at Lens) and two under (1-2 at Rennes and 0-0 with Lyon), in line with their low averages of 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, and modest 0.8 xG for. Le Havre have had one game over 2.5 (2-3 at Paris FC) and two under (both 1-1), but their 1.8 goals conceded on average and 1.83 xG against suggest chances will come – just not necessarily enough to push this beyond three goals regularly, keeping the under 2.5 as the slightly stronger call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is for around 9.47 total corners, pointing to a fairly average count rather than an onslaught from wide areas. Angers’ last three have produced corner totals of 14, 10 and 10, but they’ve often been on the back foot – for example, 3-11 at Rennes and 3-7 at Lens – suggesting they concede more corners than they win when defending deep. Le Havre’s recent matches show totals of 7, 10 and 14 corners, again with a mix of attacking phases (5 corners at Auxerre and Paris FC) and spells under pressure; combined, their pragmatic styles and mid-table caution support the predicted corners figure around the 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stands at 24.85, which fits what both sides have shown in recent weeks. Angers’ last three matches have seen 21, 18 and a remarkable 42 total shots, the latter inflated by Lens’ 26 efforts, highlighting how they can be penned in by stronger sides. Le Havre’s games have delivered 26, 22 and 35 shots in total, reflecting their 1.226 xG on average and a willingness to attack even away from home. Put together, the shots prediction just under 25 attempts feels consistent with two teams who create but are not especially clinical, which again dovetails with the modest scoring outlook.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s slight edge comes from their marginally better attacking output in recent xG numbers and the fact they’ve consistently found the net in their last three, whereas Angers have looked blunt in front of goal. The key factor to watch will be how Angers’ compact defence (0.6 goals conceded on average in the last five) copes with Le Havre’s more adventurous approach; if the hosts keep control without opening up, the visitors’ narrow advantage could quickly disappear.

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