Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Lorient Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Metz

Home Team
35%
VS

Lorient

Away Team
40%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Metz L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 4 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)

Lorient D L W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Lorient

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.98
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lorient are marginal favourites here, with a 40.0% chance of an away win against Metz’s 35.0%, and the model edging towards the visitors despite Metz having home advantage. The match leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% for under), suggesting a tight, nervy contest. In the table, Lorient are safely in mid-table in 9th on 42 points, while Metz sit bottom in 18th with just 16 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Metz arrive in desperate need of points but not short of drama. Their last three games have produced a 1-2 home defeat to Monaco, a wild 4-4 draw away at Le Havre, and a 1-3 home loss to Paris FC. That’s one point from nine, with defensive frailty obvious. Yet the advanced numbers tell a slightly different story: over the last five games they’ve averaged only 2.0 goals conceded, with expected goals against at a relatively moderate 1.33. In attack, Metz are creating more than they’re finishing, with 1.632 xG per game but only 1.0 actual goals, and just one clean sheet in that span underlining their lack of control. Lorient’s form is mixed but more reassuring. A strong 2-2 draw away at leaders Paris SG, a 2-3 home loss to Strasbourg and a 2-0 home win over Marseille show they can trouble anyone on their day. Their metrics, however, hint at vulnerability: 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average over the last five, with 1.248 xG for and a worrying 1.982 xG against. Like Metz, they’ve kept just one clean sheet lately, suggesting that while they carry an offensive threat, they also allow plenty of chances, something a desperate Metz side will look to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards under 2.5, with a 44.0% probability that this finishes a low-scoring encounter. Recent scorelines push in the opposite direction: Metz have gone over 2.5 goals in all three of their last matches (3, 8 and 4 total goals), while Lorient have seen two of their last three go over (4, 5 and 2 goals). Still, the average goals and xG figures are more restrained – Metz at 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded, Lorient at 1.2 and 1.8 – which supports an under 2.5 angle despite the recent chaos.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Metz
Corners in last 5 matches
Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.65 total corners, fitting the profile of a reasonably open but not frantic game. Metz’s last three have produced 10, 10 and 11 total corners, while Lorient’s have seen 14, 16 and 8 – numbers that show both teams can be involved in big corner counts, especially when chasing. With Metz needing to attack and Lorient dangerous on transitions, the predicted corners figure aligns with two sides who use width and crossing as key outlets.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Metz
Shots in last 5 matches
Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.55, which matches what both teams have been producing and allowing. Metz’s recent matches featured combined shot totals of 28, 26 and 28, while Lorient’s saw 29, 25 and 27. This shots prediction fits the xG profiles: neither Metz nor Lorient are ultra-clinical, but both allow enough efforts against them that a relatively high volume of attempts should be expected.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Metz wins by X goals. Negative = Lorient wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Metz vs Lorient with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Metz vs Lorient
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is very tight at -0.08 in favour of Lorient, indicating the away side are only very slightly expected to edge it. Recent results back up that balance: Metz have a combined goal difference of -3 over their last three (6 scored, 9 conceded), while Lorient sit at +1 (6 scored, 5 conceded). With Lorient’s higher win probability (40.0%) and Metz’s fragile defence, the expected spread suggests an away side with a small edge but nothing approaching a clear favourite.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s superior league position, slightly stronger recent results and marginally better defensive record give them the edge going into this one, even if the numbers say it could swing either way. Metz’s improved chance creation will be crucial; if they can finally match their xG with goals, they can trouble Lorient. A key factor to watch will be how Metz’s defence copes with Lorient’s ability to create good chances despite limited possession.

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