Ligue 1 2026-2027: Monaco vs Lille Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Monaco

Home Team
36%
VS

Lille

Away Team
36%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Lille

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Monaco
Chance creation (xG data) +5.2 Lille
Attack +4.1 Lille
Defense +2.5 Lille
Results & dominance +2.2 Lille

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Lille. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Monaco attack & chance creation +3.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.9 Under
Monaco defense +1.2 Under
Lille attack & chance creation +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lyon 7 4 2 1 13 5 8 14
2 Paris SG 7 4 2 1 14 9 5 14
3 Paris FC 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
4 Lille 7 4 2 1 10 5 5 14
5 Monaco 7 4 2 1 10 6 4 14
6 Rennes 7 4 1 2 15 14 1 13
7 Lorient 7 3 2 2 7 6 1 11
8 Lens 7 3 1 3 14 11 3 10
9 Marseille 7 3 0 4 14 10 4 9
10 Brest 7 2 3 2 13 10 3 9
11 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12 11 1 9
12 Auxerre 7 3 0 4 11 17 -6 9
13 Nice 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
14 Strasbourg 7 2 1 4 12 15 -3 7
15 Angers 7 2 1 4 9 15 -6 7
16 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10 15 -5 6
17 Troyes 7 1 1 5 5 16 -11 4
18 Le Havre 7 0 2 5 5 11 -6 2

Recent Trends

Monaco L D W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lille D W L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Monaco

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 0

Lille

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 2.25
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Monaco and Lille are joint most likely winners at 36% each, with a draw at 28%. The listed result pick is Lille. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest counterweight for Monaco, while Lille’s stronger chance creation, attack, defence and results point toward the visitors. The probabilities remain finely balanced, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. Monaco lost 0-1 at Lorient in their latest match despite taking 15 shots to Lorient’s 9. Lille, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Brest. Monaco have kept no clean sheet in their last five matches, while Lille have kept three, giving Lille the better recent defensive record.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%. Monaco’s attack and chance creation are the strongest factors pulling the forecast down, with the league scoring environment providing a counterweight toward over.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches
Lille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 8.9 corners. Both teams’ latest three matches produced between seven and ten corners, which fits a projection around nine.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches
Lille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 26 shots. Their latest matches had 24 shots in Monaco’s defeat at Lorient and 25 in Lille’s draw with Brest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Monaco wins by X goals. Negative = Lille wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Monaco vs Lille with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Monaco vs Lille
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is 0.0 goals, effectively level with a negligible lean toward Monaco. That fits the equal win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s home scoring is a potential threat, averaging 2.0 goals at home against 1.5 expected goals. If they turn that home output into chances and goals again, they could overturn the narrow lean toward Lille.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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