Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Toulouse

Home Team
35%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
39%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 38%
Under 2.5: 62%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.3
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Toulouse W D L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 3)

Lyon W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

xG (avg) 1.81
xGA (avg) 1.19
Clean Sheets 0

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are slight favourites to edge this one away from home, with a 39.0% chance of victory against Toulouse’s 35.0%, and a 26.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards an away win (predicted result: A) in a relatively tight contest between third-placed Lyon (60 points) and 10th-placed Toulouse (41 points). Goals are expected to be at a premium, with an under 2.5 goals prediction backed by a 38.0% probability for over 2.5 and the model siding with the under.

Match Analysis

Toulouse come into this game with a mixed but spirited run: a 2-1 win at Strasbourg, a 2-2 home draw with Monaco, and a narrow 3-2 defeat away to high-flying Lens. Those scorelines suggest plenty of drama, yet their broader five-game numbers tell a slightly different story: just 0.8 goals scored on average and 1.6 conceded. Interestingly, their attacking underlying numbers are stronger than the actual goals, with 1.814 expected goals created per match over the last five, hinting at wasteful finishing rather than a lack of chances. Lyon arrive in far better form on paper, with three straight wins: 4-2 at home against Rennes, 3-2 against Auxerre, and an impressive 2-1 victory away at leaders Paris SG. They are grinding out results despite modest attacking production over the last five games (1.0 goal scored on average and 1.016 expected goals), and they’ve kept 2 clean sheets in that spell. Defensively, however, Lyon have allowed 1.4 goals and 1.642 expected goals per game, so their back line is far from watertight, which could give Toulouse encouragement at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 as the likeliest outcome for the goals market, despite a 38.0% probability listed for over 2.5. Both sides’ recent scorelines contradict that slightly: all 3 of Toulouse’s last matches went over 2.5 goals (3, 4 and 5 total goals), and all 3 of Lyon’s also cleared the line (6, 5 and 3 goals). But the averages and xG tell a more cautious story: Toulouse at 0.8 scored vs 1.6 conceded and Lyon at 1.0 scored vs 1.4 conceded, combined with 1.814 and 1.016 expected goals respectively, support a tighter under 2.5 prediction in what could be a more controlled tactical battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match stands at 9.84, pointing towards a fairly standard Ligue 1 contest in terms of set-piece volume. Toulouse’s recent games have been corner-heavy largely because of their opponents: 3-8 at Strasbourg, 4-2 versus Monaco, and 1-14 at Lens, suggesting they often absorb pressure and concede plenty of corners. Lyon’s last three have shown a more balanced attacking profile on the flanks (7-5 vs Rennes, 6-3 vs Auxerre, 5-13 at Paris SG), which fits a corners prediction around the 10-mark, with Lyon’s higher pressing and Toulouse’s reactive style combining to generate a steady but not extreme number of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.32, which aligns with a match where both sides create but without turning it into a pure end-to-end shootout. Toulouse’s recent shot counts (16, 18, and just 5 against Lens, while allowing 9, 8, and a huge 41) show they can both attack and be penned back depending on the opponent. Lyon’s last three (16, 12 and 6 attempts, while conceding 8, 9 and 23) mirror their xG profile: efficient rather than relentless. This makes the shots prediction of around 23 expected shots believable, as the attacking units are capable but not relentlessly dominant.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Toulouse wins by X goals. Negative = Lyon wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Toulouse vs Lyon with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Toulouse vs Lyon
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.12 in favour of Lyon, meaning the away side are marginally expected to outscore Toulouse. Over their last three games, Toulouse have a combined goal difference of 0 (6 scored, 6 conceded), while Lyon boast a +4 margin (9 scored, 5 conceded), reflecting their stronger recent form. That, combined with the 39.0% win probability for Lyon versus 35.0% for Toulouse and Lyon’s slightly sharper attack, supports an expected spread that just tilts the balance towards the visitors.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s edge comes from momentum, league position, and their ability to win tight games, even when they don’t dominate the underlying numbers. Toulouse’s encouraging xG and home advantage make them dangerous, but their lack of recent clean sheets and wasteful finishing could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether Toulouse can convert the chances their numbers suggest they’ll create, or if Lyon’s clinical streak continues to carry them towards the Champions League places.

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