Premier League 2025-2026: Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Arsenal

Home Team
74%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 24.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Arsenal W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Wolves (Goals: 2 - 2)

Bournemouth D D D D D

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 0.78
Clean Sheets 2

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 1.52
xGA (avg) 1.89
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are firm favourites at the Emirates, with a 74.0% probability of taking all three points against a Bournemouth side given just a 12.0% chance of an upset (draw at 14.0%). Sitting top of the Premier League on 70 points, Arsenal are expected to underline their title credentials against 13th‑placed Bournemouth, who are comfortably mid‑table on 42 points. The game leans towards an attacking contest, with an over 2.5 prediction backed at 53.0% and a goal expectation from both sides set at 50.0%.

Match Analysis

Arsenal come into this with real momentum: three wins from three against Everton (2-0), Brighton (1-0) and Chelsea (2-1). At home they’ve looked particularly assertive, putting 25 shots on Everton and 12 on Chelsea, while conceding just one goal across those two Emirates fixtures. Their last five games support that picture: averaging 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with 1.388 expected goals (xG) created and 0.784 xG allowed per match. Two clean sheets in that period point to a side that can control games both with and without the ball. Bournemouth’s form line is more stubborn than spectacular: three straight draws, 2-2 at home to Manchester United followed by goalless stalemates with Burnley and Brentford. The Cherries have tightened up defensively, conceding only two goals in those three outings and recording clean sheets in the last two, part of three clean sheets in their last five. However, the advanced numbers hint at vulnerability: while they average just 0.4 goals conceded across the last five, their expected goals against sits noticeably higher at 1.89 per game, suggesting opponents are creating decent chances. Offensively, Bournemouth are posting 1.0 goals and 1.518 xG on average, so they are capable of asking questions, even if the finishing hasn’t always matched the underlying threat.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, expecting this to edge into a higher‑scoring contest. Two of Arsenal’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 (2-0 vs Everton, 1-0 vs Brighton), with only the 2-1 win over Chelsea going over, but their averages of 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded – backed by solid xG at both ends – suggest they regularly generate enough chances for multiple goals. For Bournemouth, two of their last three have clearly gone under 2.5 (both 0-0), with only the 2-2 draw against Manchester United going over; yet their 1.0 goals scored, 1.518 xG for and 1.89 xG against indicate matches that are more open than recent scorelines imply.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a lively game in wide areas, with 10.06 predicted corners overall. Arsenal’s last three have produced 11 corners vs Everton (8-3), 7 at Brighton (3-4) and 15 against Chelsea (5-10), showing that their attacking width and sustained pressure, especially at home, tend to generate a healthy count. Bournemouth’s recent numbers back up that expectation: 14 corners against Manchester United (6-8), 13 at Burnley (8-5) and 7 versus Brentford (4-3) underline a team that attacks with energy and also allows opponents territory, both of which support a double‑figure total in the predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 24.86 expected shots in total, the shots prediction suggests a match where both goalkeepers will be busy. Arsenal’s last three have seen them post 25 and 12 shots in their home wins over Everton and Chelsea, even if they were limited to seven attempts away at Brighton, a reflection of their ability to pin sides back at the Emirates. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have taken 16 shots against Manchester United, 22 at Burnley and 13 versus Brentford, while also allowing 14, 15 and 5 respectively; those volumes fit neatly with their xG profile and support the idea that this will be an open game with plenty of efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s superior league position, stronger recent results and more convincing underlying metrics at both ends of the pitch give them a clear edge in this fixture. Bournemouth’s resilience and improved defensive record suggest they won’t roll over, but the weight of pressure is likely to come from the home side. The key factor to watch will be how Bournemouth’s defence copes with sustained Arsenal attacks; if the chances created mirror the xG trends, the league leaders should ultimately find a way through.

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