Arsenal

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1678 · #2 Premier League On script Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #2 of 20 66.2 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 24.3%
Champions League 65.3%
Europa League 14.1%
Relegation 0.4%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Arsenal?

On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Arsenal's results were 31.2% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketArsenalLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 71.9% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 53.1% 52.8%
Both teams to score 50.0% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #2 1529 1706 1678
2024-25 Premier League #3 1520 1677 1627
2023-24 Premier League #2 1518 1732 1732
2022-23 Premier League #2 1533 1728 1625
2021-22 Premier League #5 1480 1638 1576
2020-21 Premier League #4 1534 1612 1612
2019-20 Premier League #6 1546 1582 1555
2018-19 Premier League #5 1467 1649 1553
2017-18 Premier League #6 1518 1611 1535
2016-17 Premier League #4 1471 1645 1631
2015-16 Premier League #3 1467 1637 1601
2014-15 Premier League #2 1518 1709 1666

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 18, 2026 vs Burnley W Arsenal 90.6% · draw 5.6% W ✓
May 10, 2026 at West Ham W Arsenal 62.9% · draw 18.0% W ✓
May 02, 2026 vs Fulham W Arsenal 72.0% · draw 14.8% W ✓
Apr 25, 2026 vs Newcastle W Arsenal 66.9% · draw 17.1% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 at Manchester City L Arsenal 27.1% · draw 21.2% L ✓
Apr 11, 2026 vs Bournemouth W Arsenal 73.2% · draw 14.3% L ✗
Mar 14, 2026 vs Everton W Arsenal 73.2% · draw 14.3% W ✓
Mar 04, 2026 at Brighton W Arsenal 46.2% · draw 24.3% W ✓
Mar 01, 2026 vs Chelsea W Arsenal 57.1% · draw 21.2% W ✓
Feb 22, 2026 at Tottenham W Arsenal 57.2% · draw 20.3% W ✓

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