Arsenal
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#1 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #2 of 20 70.2 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 20 in Premier League 85 pts · 26W-7D-5L · GD +44
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Arsenal?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Arsenal's results were 31.2% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Arsenal | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 71.9% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #2 | 1522 | 1547 | 1547 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #2 | 1529 | 1706 | 1678 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #3 | 1520 | 1677 | 1627 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #2 | 1518 | 1732 | 1732 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #2 | 1533 | 1728 | 1625 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #5 | 1480 | 1638 | 1576 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #4 | 1534 | 1612 | 1612 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #6 | 1546 | 1582 | 1555 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #5 | 1467 | 1649 | 1553 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #6 | 1518 | 1611 | 1535 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #4 | 1471 | 1645 | 1631 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #3 | 1467 | 1637 | 1601 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #2 | 1518 | 1709 | 1666 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | vs Burnley | W Arsenal 90.6% · draw 5.6% | W ✓ |
| May 10, 2026 | at West Ham | W Arsenal 62.9% · draw 18.0% | W ✓ |
| May 02, 2026 | vs Fulham | W Arsenal 72.0% · draw 14.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Newcastle | W Arsenal 66.9% · draw 17.1% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Manchester City | L Arsenal 27.1% · draw 21.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Bournemouth | W Arsenal 73.2% · draw 14.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Everton | W Arsenal 73.2% · draw 14.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | at Brighton | W Arsenal 46.2% · draw 24.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 01, 2026 | vs Chelsea | W Arsenal 57.1% · draw 21.2% | W ✓ |
| Feb 22, 2026 | at Tottenham | W Arsenal 57.2% · draw 20.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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