Premier League 2025-2026: Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Aston Villa

Home Team
64%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 25.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Aston Villa D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 2)

Sunderland W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Aston Villa

xG (avg) 1.51
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 1

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Aston Villa are firm favourites at home, with a 64.0% chance of victory against a Sunderland side given an 18.0% shot, with the draw at 19.0%. The model points to a Villa win and an *under 2.5* goals game, despite Villa sitting 4th on 55 points and Sunderland 10th on 46 in a crowded mid-table. With both clubs averaging just 1.0 goal scored over their last five matches, this is set up more as a grinding contest than a shoot-out.

Match Analysis

Villa come into this on a slightly patchy run: a solid 2-0 home win over West Ham was bookended by a 1-3 defeat at Manchester United and a 1-1 draw away to Nottingham Forest. The pattern is clear – much more authoritative at Villa Park, where they created 23 shots against West Ham, but less convincing on the road. Over the last five, they’ve scored 1.0 and conceded 1.2 per game, yet their expected goals (1.508 for, 1.244 against) suggest they are crafting decent chances and might be underperforming slightly in front of goal. Sunderland arrive with confidence after back-to-back wins against Newcastle (2-1 away) and Tottenham (1-0 at home), either side of a tight 0-1 home defeat to Brighton. Those results underline a side that can edge close matches: just three goals scored and two conceded across those fixtures. Over their last five, they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.146 xG for and 1.472 xG against, pointing to a team that often has to work harder for chances and spends spells under pressure defensively.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards *under 2.5* goals with a 46.0% probability for over 2.5, so the under 2.5 prediction edges it. Two of Villa’s last three league matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 at Forest, 2-0 vs West Ham), with only the 1-3 loss at United going over. Sunderland have seen all three of their recent games end under 2.5 apart from the 2-1 win at Newcastle, so they also trend low-scoring. With both sides averaging just 1.0 goal scored in their last five, and xG figures (1.508 vs 1.146) that are solid but not explosive, a cagey, narrow scoreline fits the numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 10.04 total, which matches what we’ve seen from these two. Villa’s last three games produced 10, 12 and 12 corners respectively, reflecting a side that attacks with width and forces set-piece situations, especially at home. Sunderland’s recent matches brought 8, 14 and 10 corners, underlining that their opponents often rack up deliveries as they defend deeper. A total around 10 predicted corners looks realistic for a game where Villa are likely to press and sustain territory.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.54, which suggests a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers without turning into a shot-fest. Villa’s last three have featured 27, 32 and 25 combined shots, while Sunderland’s have had 24, 33 and 26, all in the same ballpark as this shots prediction. Given Villa’s higher attacking xG (1.508) and Sunderland’s tendency to allow chances (1.472 xG against), the expected shots tally supports a scenario where Villa do most of the shooting, with Sunderland looking to be efficient on the break.

Final Prediction

Villa’s stronger underlying numbers, home advantage and current 4th-place position give them a clear edge over 10th-placed Sunderland, even if the scoreline may be tight. Sunderland’s resilience in recent low-scoring wins hints they can make this awkward, but Villa’s chance creation and territorial pressure should tell over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Sunderland can withstand sustained Villa pressure without conceding first – if they can’t, the home side’s control should be decisive.

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