Premier League 2025-2026: Brighton vs Man United Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brighton

Home Team
54%
VS

Man United

Away Team
24%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.0
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Brighton L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)

Man United W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

xG (avg) 2.06
xGA (avg) 0.62
Clean Sheets 2

Man United

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are marginal favourites at home, with a 54.0% chance of victory against Manchester United’s 24.0%, and an expected goal spread of +0.39 in the Seagulls’ favour. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction with a 61.0% probability of at least three goals. In the table, United sit 3rd on 68 points, while Brighton are 7th on 53 but pushing to close the gap on the European places.

Match Analysis

Brighton come into this on the back of a mixed set of results but generally strong performances. A 3-0 home win over Wolves showcased their attacking fluency, while narrow away defeats at Leeds (0-1) and Newcastle (1-3) both saw them rack up more corners and, in Leeds’ case, far more shots (19-7). Over the last five games they have averaged 2.0 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, underpinned by impressive xG numbers: 2.058 created and just 0.624 allowed, plus two clean sheets. That profile screams control and chance creation, especially at home. United’s recent form has been solid if not spectacular. They edged high-scoring home thrillers against Nottingham Forest (3-2) and Liverpool (3-2), either side of a flat 0-0 at Sunderland where they were out-shot 15-11. Across the last five, United are averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, with xG of 1.198 for and 1.364 against, again with two clean sheets. They are grinding results but allowing more chances than they create, which is a concern against a Brighton side that has been relentlessly efficient recently.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Brighton’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Wolves, 1-3 vs Newcastle), while one was under (0-1 at Leeds). United have been even more open: two of their last three (3-2 vs Forest, 3-2 vs Liverpool) sailed over 2.5, with only the 0-0 at Sunderland going under 2.5. With Brighton’s averages of 2.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, plus xG of 2.058 for and 0.624 against, and United’s more modest but still positive attacking figures, a goal-heavy contest is the logical call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches
Man United
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for the corners prediction is 9.85, suggesting a match with regular attacking waves but not a complete siege. Brighton’s last three have produced 15, 8 and 12 total corners, reflecting how their front-foot style forces teams back and draws set pieces – they repeatedly out-cornered Leeds (8-7), Wolves (7-1) and Newcastle (10-2). United’s games have been slightly more restrained on this front, with 13, 15 and 5 corners, but still show a team that attacks in bursts. Given both sides like to probe in wide areas, predicted corners just under double figures feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at an expected 26.03 total attempts, which aligns with how both teams have been playing. Brighton’s last three outings featured 19, 14 and 13 shots for, and they largely limited opponents to 7, 5 and 13 respectively – typically on the front foot but still vulnerable to counters. United have fired off 29, 11 and 18 shots in their last three, while conceding 11, 15 and 13, numbers that mirror their xG pattern of giving up slightly more than they create. Those figures support expected shots in the mid-20s, with Brighton likely edging volume and quality.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brighton wins by X goals. Negative = Man United wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brighton vs Man United with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brighton vs Man United
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Brighton -0.39, signalling a slim home advantage rather than a rout. Across their last three, Brighton’s goal differences are +3, -1 and -2 (overall 4 scored, 4 conceded), with the underlying five-game trend much more positive given their 2.0 goals scored on average. United’s last three bring goal differences of +1, 0 and +1 (6 scored, 4 conceded), but their five-game xG conceded (1.364) suggests a defence that can be opened up. With a 54.0% home-win probability versus 24.0% for the visitors, the expected spread fairly reflects Brighton’s sharper recent attacking and tighter defensive metrics.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s edge lies in their recent dominance in chance creation and their ability to control games territorially, especially at home, while United’s underlying numbers hint at a side living a little dangerously. If Brighton hit their usual xG levels and convert a normal share of chances, United’s back line will be under heavy pressure. The key factor to watch will be whether United can withstand Brighton’s sustained attacks and transition quickly enough to punish any gaps, or whether the Seagulls’ superior balance finally tilts a tight contest their way.

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