Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Brighton Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Burnley

Home Team
26%
VS

Brighton

Away Team
52%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Burnley L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brentford (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 1)

Brighton W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 2.21
Clean Sheets 1

Brighton

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brighton are favoured to take all three points at Turf Moor, with a 52.0% probability of an away win against just 26.0% for Burnley and 22.0% for the draw. The model points to a tight game, leaning towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 48.0% chance of the match going over 2.5. In the table, Brighton sit 10th on 43 points, while Burnley are marooned in 19th with 20 points and fighting to avoid dropping into the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Burnley come into this desperate for a result but short on momentum: one point from their last three games, with defeats away to Fulham (1-3) and Everton (0-2) and a goalless home draw with Bournemouth. Those matches underline their issues at both ends of the pitch – only one goal scored in that spell and six conceded – even if the Bournemouth game did at least bring a clean sheet and a more competitive 15-22 shot count. Across the last five games, Burnley are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with expected goals figures of 1.244 for and 2.21 against, underlining how often they are allowing good chances. Brighton arrive in much better shape. Wins over Liverpool (2-1) and away at Sunderland (1-0) were followed by a narrow 0-1 loss to leaders Arsenal, and in all three they were competitive on shots and corners. Over their last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by xG of 1.252 for and 1.404 against – numbers that suggest a side generally on top or at least level in most contests. Two clean sheets in that period further highlight a more solid edge, something Burnley have managed only once in their last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Brighton
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 52.0% implied edge against a 48.0% chance of going over 2.5, so the under 2.5 call is the primary goals pick here. Two of Burnley’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Bournemouth, 0-2 vs Everton), with only the 1-3 at Fulham going above the line. Brighton’s recent games have been consistently tight: all three – 2-1 vs Liverpool, 1-0 at Sunderland, 0-1 vs Arsenal – finished under 3.5, with just one of them creeping over 2.5. The modest averages for goals scored on both sides and similar xG profiles support a cautious over 2.5 prediction, strengthening the case for a low-scoring game.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Brighton
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match stands at 9.87, pointing towards roughly 9–10 corners overall. Burnley’s last three outings produced corner totals of 12 at Fulham (6-6), 13 against Bournemouth (5-8) and 9 at Everton (3-6), showing that their matches can swing high when they are chasing games. Brighton’s recent corner numbers have been slightly lower – 12 vs Liverpool (4-8), 10 at Sunderland (3-7) and 7 vs Arsenal (4-3) – reflecting a more controlled style. That mix of a more reactive Burnley and a measured Brighton suits a corners prediction just around the 10-mark rather than a wild end-to-end contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Brighton
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is set at 25.38 expected shots in total, which aligns neatly with how both sides have been playing. Burnley have faced heavy shot volumes – 22 from Fulham, 22 from Bournemouth and 14 from Everton – while producing 9, 15 and 5 themselves, which fits the profile of a team often under pressure. Brighton, meanwhile, have been steady: 16 shots vs Liverpool, 12 at Sunderland and 11 against Arsenal, while limiting opponents broadly in the same range. With both teams generating around 1.2 xG on average in recent weeks, around 25 expected shots feels realistic for the balance of Brighton’s controlled possession and Burnley’s more sporadic attacking.

Final Prediction

Brighton’s higher league position, better recent form and stronger defensive record give them a clear edge over a Burnley side struggling for both results and stability at the back. If the visitors control the tempo and convert their territorial advantage into chances, their 52.0% win probability looks justified. The key factor to watch will be whether Burnley can disrupt Brighton’s rhythm early; if they can’t, the game is likely to tilt steadily in the away side’s favour.

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