Premier League 2025-2026: Burnley vs Wolves Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Burnley

Home Team
41%
VS

Wolves

Away Team
34%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.6
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Burnley L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 4)

Wolves D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Burnley

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 2.21
Clean Sheets 0

Wolves

xG (avg) 1.03
xGA (avg) 2.63
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Burnley are narrowly fancied to edge this relegation dogfight, with a 41.0% probability of a home win against Wolves’ 34.0% and a 25.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0%, suggesting a tight, nervy contest. In the table, Burnley sit 19th on 21 points, just ahead of bottom side Wolves in 20th on 19 points, with both desperate to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Burnley come into this on the back of one point from their last three, but their performances have been more competitive than their league position suggests. A 2-2 home draw with Aston Villa showed they can trade blows with better sides, creating 15 shots, while narrow defeats to Arsenal (0-1) and Leeds (1-3) underline defensive frailty rather than a total collapse. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG figures of 1.198 for and 2.21 against, which fits the profile of a side that can create but is consistently open at the back. Wolves look even more fragile. They are winless in their last three, with home draws against Fulham (1-1) and Sunderland (1-1) either side of a blunt 0-3 loss at Brighton. The underlying numbers are alarming: just 0.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game over their last five, with xG at 1.028 for and 2.632 against. Like Burnley, they have no clean sheets in that period, but they are conceding more heavily and with less attacking punch, which tilts the balance slightly towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
Wolves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 47.0% probability, and the recent scorelines back a cautious over 2.5 prediction. Burnley’s last three matches saw totals of 1, 4 and 4 goals, so 2 out of 3 went over 2.5. Wolves, though, have been involved in lower scoring affairs: 2, 3 and 2 total goals, with 2 of 3 under 2.5. With Burnley averaging 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, and Wolves at 0.4 scored and 2.6 conceded, plus both sides’ xG hovering around one goal for and over two against, a scrappy game with goals but not a shootout is a reasonable call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Burnley
Corners in last 5 matches
Wolves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.64, pointing towards a moderate corners prediction rather than a barrage of set‑pieces. Burnley’s recent games have produced 6, 10 and 5 total corners, while Wolves have seen 9, 8 and 9, numbers that broadly align with that 9–10 range. Both teams tend to absorb pressure and rely on broken play rather than sustained high‑pressing attacks, which usually generates a steady, not explosive, flow of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches
Wolves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 25.65, suggesting an open game with both sides willing to let fly – a key element in this shots prediction. Burnley’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 18, 33 and 27, while Wolves’ matches produced 24, 19 and 30 efforts. Those volumes match the xG story: both create just over one expected goal per game but concede far more, so we can expect shots from both ends without necessarily seeing clinical finishing.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Burnley wins by X goals. Negative = Wolves wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Burnley vs Wolves with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Burnley vs Wolves
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal spread prediction is Burnley -0.14, a very slight edge to the home side rather than a clear gulf. Recently, Burnley’s goal differences have been -1, 0 and -2, while Wolves’ have been 0, -3 and 0, with Wolves generally losing heavier when they do collapse. That thin expected spread marries with the 41.0% home‑win probability and reflects Burnley’s marginally better attack against a Wolves defence conceding 2.6 goals per game.

Final Prediction

Burnley’s faint statistical edge going forward, combined with Wolves’ worse defensive form, gives the Clarets a small but tangible advantage at Turf Moor. With survival on the line, the key factor to watch will be which side handles the pressure better in both boxes, where one mistake or one moment of quality is likely to decide it.

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