Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Man United Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Chelsea

Home Team
46%
VS

Man United

Away Team
30%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 67%
Under 2.5: 33%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 26.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Chelsea L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Man United L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 0

Man United

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are slight favourites at Stamford Bridge, with a 46.0% probability of taking all three points against a Manchester United side given a 30.0% chance of victory and a 25.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (67.0% probability), suggesting an open game between the 6th‑placed Blues (48 points) and 3rd‑placed United (55 points).

Match Analysis

Chelsea come into this match on a worrying run of three straight defeats, all without scoring: 0-3 v Man City, 0-3 at Everton and 0-1 v Newcastle. The results look grim, but the underlying numbers are less bleak: over their last five games they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.268 expected goals, while conceding 1.8 goals from only 1.494 expected against. That points to wastefulness in front of goal and some poor finishing luck rather than a team creating nothing. United’s recent form is steadier if not spectacular: a 3-1 home win over Aston Villa, followed by a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth and a 1-2 home defeat to Leeds. They’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.278 expected goals in their last five, conceding 1.4 goals from 1.406 expected. Like Chelsea, they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those five games, underlining why this contest is tilted towards goals and why the predicted result leans Chelsea’s way despite United’s higher league position.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Man United
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is strong here at 67.0%, with the match also expected to feature both teams scoring (63.0% probability). Two of United’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-1 v Villa, 2-2 at Bournemouth), while all three of Chelsea’s have gone under due to their scoring drought, despite them generating far more chances than their zero goals suggest. With Chelsea averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, and United at 1.6 for and 1.4 against, plus both sides’ xG numbers pointing to regular chances at both ends, this looks more like an “over 2.5” game than another cagey 90 minutes.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Corners in last 5 matches
Man United
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.57, a healthy figure that fits recent patterns for both sides. Chelsea’s last three outings produced 4-12, 9-3 and 8-1 in corners, showing a team that pushes high and forces set-pieces even when results go against them. United’s recent corner counts (11-4 v Leeds, 8-6 at Bournemouth, 6-6 v Villa) also back up a positive corners prediction, with both teams’ attacking intent likely to keep the flag-bearers busy in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Man United
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 26.9, in line with how both teams have been playing. Chelsea have recorded 12, 12 and 22 shots in their last three matches, while allowing 18, 10 and 7, and United’s last three show 20, 14 and 16 attempts, conceding 15, 16 and 9. Given those volumes and the xG profiles – 2.268 expected goals per game for Chelsea and 1.278 for United – a shots prediction close to 27 efforts overall matches the picture of two sides that create regularly, even if the finishing has been inconsistent.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s edge comes from stronger recent chance creation, home advantage and United’s ongoing defensive leaks, all reflected in the 46.0% win probability for the hosts. United, however, carry enough attacking threat to punish any lapses. The key factor to watch will be whether Chelsea finally align their xG with actual goals; if they do, a high‑scoring home win looks more likely than their recent scorelines suggest.

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