Manchester City
Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#7 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 20 73.3 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #2 of 20 in Premier League 78 pts · 23W-9D-6L · GD +42
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Premier League simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Manchester City?
On script 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Manchester City's results were 28.5% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.
| Market | Manchester City | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 64.5% | 47.8% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 52.8% |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | 53.5% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | #1 | 1518 | 1549 | 1549 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | #1 | 1534 | 1706 | 1706 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | #1 | 1533 | 1664 | 1664 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | #1 | 1534 | 1770 | 1770 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | #1 | 1533 | 1757 | 1718 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | #2 | 1482 | 1749 | 1746 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | #1 | 1536 | 1752 | 1664 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | #2 | 1534 | 1673 | 1673 |
| 2018-19 | Premier League | #2 | 1533 | 1772 | 1772 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | #1 | 1533 | 1782 | 1777 |
| 2016-17 | Premier League | #3 | 1518 | 1672 | 1672 |
| 2015-16 | Premier League | #6 | 1534 | 1621 | 1570 |
| 2014-15 | Premier League | #3 | 1533 | 1686 | 1662 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | vs Crystal Palace | W Manchester City 84.4% · draw 8.8% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Brentford | W Manchester City 77.2% · draw 12.4% | W ✓ |
| May 04, 2026 | at Everton | W Manchester City 65.6% · draw 16.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | at Burnley | W Manchester City 71.0% · draw 14.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Arsenal | W Manchester City 51.7% · draw 21.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Chelsea | W Manchester City 46.2% · draw 24.2% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | at West Ham | W Manchester City 67.3% · draw 16.2% | D ✗ |
| Mar 04, 2026 | vs Nottingham Forest | W Manchester City 71.1% · draw 15.3% | D ✗ |
| Feb 28, 2026 | at Leeds | W Manchester City 59.5% · draw 19.4% | W ✓ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | vs Newcastle | W Manchester City 60.7% · draw 19.8% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
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