Manchester City

Premier League · ELO profile, season forecast & model record

ELO 1706 · #1 Premier League On script Updated May 18, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.

Season simulation

2026-27 season forecast

Projected: #1 of 20 68.3 expected pts · pre-season forecast

League title 32.3%
Champions League 73.3%
Europa League 11.3%
Relegation 0.2%

The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.

Full Premier League simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →

How predictable is Manchester City?

On script 2025-26 · 31 predicted matches

We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Manchester City's results were 28.5% easier to call than the Premier League average. How this is measured.

MarketManchester CityLeague avg
Match result (1X2) 64.5% 47.8%
Under/Over 2.5 goals 61.3% 52.8%
Both teams to score 41.9% 53.5%

Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.

Season by season

SeasonLeaguePosStartPeakEnd
2025-26 Premier League #1 1534 1706 1706
2024-25 Premier League #1 1533 1664 1664
2023-24 Premier League #1 1534 1770 1770
2022-23 Premier League #1 1533 1757 1718
2021-22 Premier League #2 1482 1749 1746
2020-21 Premier League #1 1536 1752 1664
2019-20 Premier League #2 1534 1673 1673
2018-19 Premier League #2 1533 1772 1772
2017-18 Premier League #1 1533 1782 1777
2016-17 Premier League #3 1518 1672 1672
2015-16 Premier League #6 1534 1621 1570
2014-15 Premier League #3 1533 1686 1662

ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.

Recent matches — model vs reality

DateOpponentModel saidResult
May 13, 2026 vs Crystal Palace W Manchester City 84.4% · draw 8.8% W ✓
May 09, 2026 vs Brentford W Manchester City 77.2% · draw 12.4% W ✓
May 04, 2026 at Everton W Manchester City 65.6% · draw 16.9% D ✗
Apr 22, 2026 at Burnley W Manchester City 71.0% · draw 14.6% W ✓
Apr 19, 2026 vs Arsenal W Manchester City 51.7% · draw 21.2% W ✓
Apr 12, 2026 at Chelsea W Manchester City 46.2% · draw 24.2% W ✓
Mar 14, 2026 at West Ham W Manchester City 67.3% · draw 16.2% D ✗
Mar 04, 2026 vs Nottingham Forest W Manchester City 71.1% · draw 15.3% D ✗
Feb 28, 2026 at Leeds W Manchester City 59.5% · draw 19.4% W ✓
Feb 21, 2026 vs Newcastle W Manchester City 60.7% · draw 19.8% W ✓

Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/manchester-city">Premier League title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)

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