Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crystal Palace

Home Team
27%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
51%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: -0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 37 25 7 5 69 26 43 82
2 Man City 36 23 8 5 75 32 43 77
3 Man United 37 19 11 7 66 50 16 68
4 Aston Villa 37 18 8 11 54 48 6 62
5 Liverpool 37 17 8 12 62 52 10 59
6 Bournemouth 36 13 16 7 56 52 4 55
7 Brighton 37 14 11 12 52 43 9 53
8 Brentford 37 14 10 13 54 51 3 52
9 Sunderland 37 13 12 12 40 47 -7 51
10 Chelsea 36 13 10 13 55 49 6 49
11 Newcastle 37 14 7 16 53 53 0 49
12 Everton 37 13 10 14 47 49 -2 49
13 Fulham 37 14 7 16 45 51 -6 49
14 Leeds 37 11 14 12 49 53 -4 47
15 Crystal Palace 37 11 12 14 40 49 -9 45
16 Nott'm Forest 37 11 10 16 47 50 -3 43
17 Tottenham 36 9 11 16 46 55 -9 38
18 West Ham 37 9 9 19 43 65 -22 36
19 Burnley 37 4 9 24 37 74 -37 21
20 Wolves 37 3 10 24 26 67 -41 19

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 3)

Arsenal W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 1.95
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 0

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.91
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are favoured to take all three points at Selhurst Park, with a 51.0% chance of an away win compared to just 27.0% for Crystal Palace and 23.0% for the draw. The prediction leans towards Mikel Arteta’s side, who sit top of the Premier League on 82 points, facing a Palace team in 15th on 45 points. The model also points to an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0%.

Match Analysis

Crystal Palace come into this on the back of two entertaining 2-2 draws against Brentford and Everton, either side of a 3-0 defeat away to Manchester City. Those results underline a recurring theme: they can create chances and score, but they are also vulnerable at the back. The numbers back this up – across their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, yet their xG figures (1.946 for, 1.362 against) suggest more chaotic games than the raw scorelines show, and they’ve not kept a single clean sheet in that period. Arsenal’s form is more controlled and efficient. Three straight wins – 1-0 over Burnley, 1-0 at West Ham, and 3-0 against Fulham – have kept them on top of the table with the best defensive record in the league (26 conceded in 37). Over their last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with strong underlying numbers (1.912 xG for, 1.082 xG against) and four clean sheets. That blend of solid defending and consistent chance creation explains why the away side is strongly favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 54.0%, edging out the under 2.5 scenario. Two of Palace’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4, 3, and 4 total goals), reflecting their mix of attacking intent and defensive frailty. Arsenal’s last three have produced totals of 1, 1 and 3, so only one over 2.5, but their averages of 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus both sides’ xG figures near two per game, support the idea of goals in this one rather than a cagey under 2.5 affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.53 total, suggesting a game around the 9–10 corners mark. Palace’s last three outings produced corner counts of 13, 13 and 15 (they earned 4, 4 and 5 themselves), while Arsenal’s were tighter at 6, 7 and 7. With Arsenal likely to dominate territory and Palace looking to break and attack wide, the predicted corners total fits two teams willing to push forward rather than sit deep.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 23.52 for the match, in line with both sides’ recent output. Palace’s last three games saw combined shot totals of 30, 21 and 34, while Arsenal’s produced 18, 24 and 28. That supports a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s, matching the strong xG numbers for both teams and hinting at a contest where the league leaders steadily generate chances against a Palace side that’s not shy about shooting when they get into the final third.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crystal Palace wins by X goals. Negative = Arsenal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal with expected spread of -0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.68 (home – away), meaning the expected spread slightly favours Arsenal by roughly two-thirds of a goal. Across the last three matches, Palace have an aggregate goal difference of -1 (4 scored, 7 conceded), while Arsenal sit at +4 (5 scored, 1 conceded). That combination of Arsenal’s superior recent margins, defensive steel, and the 51.0% away-win probability underpins the model’s view that the visitors are more likely to win by a narrow but clear margin.

Final Prediction

Arsenal’s tighter defence, better recent goal difference and superior underlying numbers give them the edge over a Palace side that creates chances but struggles to shut teams out. If the visitors control the tempo and keep Palace’s attacks at arm’s length, their extra quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Palace can turn their promising xG into early goals; if they don’t, Arsenal’s composure and structure are likely to decide the contest.

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