Premier League 2025-2026: Crystal Palace vs West Ham Prediction - 20 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Crystal Palace

Home Team
62%
VS

West Ham

Away Team
19%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 1 - 0)

West Ham W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 2.05
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 2

West Ham

xG (avg) 1.29
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Crystal Palace are favoured to take all three points at Selhurst Park, with a home win given a 62.0% probability against just 19.0% for West Ham and 19.0% for the draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 50.0% and both teams to score rated at 53.0%. Palace come into this one 13th in the Premier League on 42 points, while West Ham sit 17th on 32 points and remain firmly in the relegation scrap.

Match Analysis

Palace arrive in good form and with momentum. In their last three games they have beaten Newcastle 2-1 at home, drawn 0-0 at home with Leeds and produced an impressive 3-1 away win at Tottenham. That run – two wins and a draw – has been built on more solid underlying numbers: they’ve averaged 2.052 expected goals per match over their last five, while allowing 1.574 xG, and have kept two clean sheets in that period. Although they’re only scoring 1.2 goals per game over those five, the xG suggests there is room for their finishing to trend upwards. West Ham are far more volatile. They destroyed Wolves 4-0 at home, then were well beaten 2-0 away at Aston Villa, and battled to a 1-1 home draw with Manchester City despite being out-shot 24-1 and conceding 15 corners. Over their last five, they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored but are leaking 2.0 per game, with xG conceded at 1.946 – a sign that opponents are consistently creating good chances against them. Two clean sheets in that spell show they can shut the door on their day, but the balance of play has generally tilted against them. Taken together, Palace’s stronger recent control of games, better defensive xG and home advantage make them look the more stable side. West Ham’s attacking threat is there in flashes, but their defensive numbers and league position underline why they come in as clear underdogs.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
West Ham
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction, with a 50.0% probability of at least three goals. Two of Palace’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Newcastle, 3-1 at Tottenham), with only the 0-0 against Leeds falling under 2.5. West Ham’s last three have all finished under 2.5 (4-0 vs Wolves is exactly four total goals, so over; correction: that actually makes one over and two under: 4-0 Wolves, 0-2 Villa, 1-1 City), meaning one over and two under. With Palace averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five and West Ham at 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures pointing to chances at both ends, a lively scoreline is a reasonable expectation.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
West Ham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.75, suggesting a game around the 9–10 corner mark. Palace’s recent home games have seen 6 and 11 total corners, while their away win at Spurs produced 9, indicating a moderate but steady corner output. West Ham’s last three have produced 7, 12 and 16 corners respectively, with the City match in particular showing how a side under pressure can concede a lot of corners. Given Palace’s recent attacking intent at home and West Ham’s tendency to absorb spells of pressure, the predicted corners tally fits a match where both flanks see plenty of service.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
West Ham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.13, hinting at a match with a decent number of attempts but not a complete shootout. Palace have registered 11, 12 and 9 shots in their last three, while allowing 7, 10 and 12 – numbers that line up neatly with that expected shots figure. West Ham, meanwhile, have had 18, 9 and just 1 shot in their last three, while conceding 14, 23 and 24 efforts, underlining how often they are put under sustained attacking pressure. Those shot volumes mirror the xG pattern: Palace creating over 2.0 xG per game recently and West Ham conceding close to 2.0 xG suggest a game where Palace should generate the clearer chances.

Final Prediction

Crystal Palace’s edge comes from their stronger recent form, superior underlying numbers and the comfort of playing at Selhurst Park against a West Ham side still straining to keep clear of the bottom three. West Ham have the capacity to punish mistakes, but their defensive vulnerability and reliance on soaking up pressure could be costly. The key factor to watch will be how often Palace can turn their promising xG and shot volume into goals against a West Ham defence that has been repeatedly stretched in recent weeks.

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