Premier League 2025-2026: Fulham vs Aston Villa Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Fulham

Home Team
42%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
33%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 33 21 7 5 66 29 37 70
2 Arsenal 33 21 7 5 63 26 37 70
3 Man United 33 16 10 7 58 45 13 58
4 Aston Villa 33 17 7 9 47 41 6 58
5 Liverpool 33 16 7 10 54 43 11 55
6 Brighton 34 13 11 10 48 39 9 50
7 Bournemouth 34 11 16 7 52 52 0 49
8 Chelsea 34 13 9 12 53 45 8 48
9 Brentford 33 13 9 11 48 44 4 48
10 Everton 33 13 8 12 40 39 1 47
11 Sunderland 33 12 10 11 36 40 -4 46
12 Fulham 33 13 6 14 43 46 -3 45
13 Crystal Palace 32 11 10 11 35 36 -1 43
14 Newcastle 33 12 6 15 46 49 -3 42
15 Leeds 34 9 13 12 44 51 -7 40
16 Nott'm Forest 33 9 9 15 36 45 -9 36
17 West Ham 33 8 9 16 40 57 -17 33
18 Tottenham 33 7 10 16 42 53 -11 31
19 Burnley 34 4 8 22 34 68 -34 20
20 Wolves 33 3 8 22 24 61 -37 17

Recent Trends

Fulham D L W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 1)

Aston Villa W D W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.95
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 2

Aston Villa

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are narrowly tipped to edge this one at Craven Cottage, with a 42.0% probability of a home win against Aston Villa’s 33.0%, and a draw at 25.0%. The hosts sit 12th on 45 points, while Villa are pushing for the Champions League in 4th on 58 points, but the numbers lean slightly towards Fulham on the day. Goals are expected, with an over 2.5 prediction favoured at 52.0% and both teams backed to score (55.0% probability of a goal for each side).

Match Analysis

Fulham come into this on a mixed run but with some promising signs. A 3-1 home win over Burnley underlined their attacking strength at the Cottage, flanked by a gritty 0-0 at Brentford and a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool where they still produced 19 shots. Across their last five matches they are averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, supported by a strong 1.95 average xG for and 1.64 xG against, suggesting they are generally creating the better chances in recent weeks. Villa, meanwhile, remain in the top-four hunt but their recent numbers are less dominant than their league position suggests. A thrilling 4-3 home win over Sunderland and a controlled 2-0 victory against West Ham were split by a laboured 1-1 away draw at Nottingham Forest. Over their last five games they average only 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with 1.17 xG for and 1.56 xG against, and just one clean sheet in that period. That slight defensive wobble, contrasted with Fulham’s improving attacking data, underpins the marginal tilt towards the home side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% looks justified here. Two of Fulham’s last three (3-1 vs Burnley, 2-0 vs Liverpool, 0-0 vs Brentford) finished under 2.5, but their attacking averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.95 xG for hint at higher-scoring potential. Villa have seen two of their last three go under 2.5 (2-0 vs West Ham, 1-1 at Forest) with only the 4-3 against Sunderland exploding into a goalfest, yet their 1.4 goals conceded and 1.56 xG against indicate vulnerabilities that could open the game up.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a lively but not extreme tally, with 9.87 expected total corners in this match. Fulham’s last three have produced 12, 15 and 12 corners respectively, while Villa’s have seen totals of 10, 10 and 9, showing both sides frequently trade set-piece situations. With Fulham’s willingness to shoot and Villa’s attacking width, the predicted corners figure aligns with two front-foot teams capable of forcing pressure high up the pitch.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches
Aston Villa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 25.29 expected shots, the shots prediction suggests a game where both goalkeepers will be busy. Fulham’s last three outings have seen them take 22, 19 and 11 shots, while allowing 9, 18 and 13; Villa have fired 23, 12 and 15, conceding 9, 15 and 10. Those volumes, combined with Fulham’s 1.95 xG for and Villa’s 1.56 xG against, support the idea of sustained attacking phases and plenty of attempts from both sides.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Fulham wins by X goals. Negative = Aston Villa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Fulham vs Aston Villa with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Fulham vs Aston Villa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is very tight, with an expected spread of +0.08 in Fulham’s favour, essentially calling a marginal home edge. Over the last three games Fulham are +0 on goal difference (3 scored, 3 conceded), while Villa sit at +3 (7 scored, 4 conceded), but Villa’s broader five-game trend of conceding more than they score slightly tempers that. When combined with the 42.0% home-win probability and Fulham’s superior recent xG, the expected spread reflects a game that could swing either way but just leans towards the hosts.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s stronger recent chance creation, home comfort and Villa’s less convincing defensive numbers all contribute to the slight nod towards Marco Silva’s men. Villa’s attacking quality keeps this on a knife-edge, but Fulham’s ability to generate shots and xG at the Cottage may prove decisive. The key factor to watch will be how Villa’s back line copes with sustained Fulham pressure and whether they can limit the volume and quality of chances conceded.

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