Premier League 2025-2026: Man City vs Arsenal Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Man City

Home Team
52%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
27%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 21.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Man City W D D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs West Ham (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)

Arsenal L W W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Brighton (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Tottenham (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Man City

xG (avg) 2.13
xGA (avg) 0.93
Clean Sheets 2

Arsenal

xG (avg) 2.03
xGA (avg) 0.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Man City are narrowly favoured at home with a 52.0% probability of winning, compared to Arsenal’s 27.0% and a 21.0% chance of a draw, despite Arsenal arriving as league leaders in 1st place on 70 points, six clear of 2nd-placed City on 64. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% and both sides expected to find the net (59.0% probability of “goal”).

Match Analysis

City come into this with mixed recent results but strong underlying dominance. A 3-0 away win at Chelsea was followed by frustrating draws: 1-1 at West Ham and 2-2 at home to Nottingham Forest. In all three games they overwhelmed opponents on territory and chances – 12-4, 15-1 and 6-1 corners; 18-12, 24-1 and 21-9 shots – but didn’t always turn control into maximum points. Arsenal’s last three show a team grinding rather than sparkling. They beat Everton 2-0 and edged Brighton 1-0 away, either side of a costly 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth. The Gunners have typically had the upper hand in chance creation – 10-1 corners and 15-8 shots in that Bournemouth loss, and 8-3 corners, 25-9 shots against Everton – but were less convincing at Brighton where they were out-shot 11-7 and lost the corner count 4-3. The advanced metrics underline how evenly matched these two are. City’s last five games show them averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, backed up by 2.134 xG for and 0.934 xG against, plus two clean sheets. Arsenal are fractionally ahead going forward with 2.4 goals per game from 2.032 xG, and just 0.8 conceded from a very tight 0.692 xG against, also with two clean sheets. It all points to fine margins deciding this one.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Man City
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to over 2.5 goals at 52.0%, and the recent numbers back that up. Two of City’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-0 at Chelsea and 2-2 vs Forest), with only the 1-1 at West Ham staying under. Arsenal are the mirror image: two of their last three stayed under 2.5 (2-0 vs Everton, 1-0 at Brighton), with only the 2-1 Bournemouth defeat going over. With both sides averaging at least 2.0 goals scored and sub-1.0 conceded, and xG figures above 2.0 in attack, the over 2.5 prediction is reasonable in what should be a high-quality offensive battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Man City
Corners in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.14, suggesting a relatively busy afternoon in wide areas. City’s last three games produced huge corner numbers in their favour – 12, 15 and 6 – as their territorial domination forced teams back into their own box. Arsenal have also been strong from set-piece situations, recording 10 and 8 corners in their two recent home games, though they managed only 3 at Brighton. With both sides preferring to attack and pin opponents deep, this corners prediction fits two front-foot teams likely to rack up plenty of deliveries into the area.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Man City
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 21.94 aligns well with what these teams have produced recently. City have been relentless, taking 18, 24 and 21 shots in their last three matches, consistently peppering opposition goals regardless of venue. Arsenal’s output has been strong at home (15 and 25 shots vs Bournemouth and Everton) but dipped to 7 attempts at Brighton, suggesting a tougher time creating away to well-organised sides. Given both teams’ strong xG in attack, this shots prediction points to a game where clear chances arrive regularly at both ends.

Final Prediction

City’s slight edge comes from home advantage and their ability to sustain pressure, as seen in dominant shot and corner counts even when results have faltered. Arsenal counter with the resilience of league leaders and a defensive record backed by the best xG-against numbers in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Arsenal can withstand City’s sustained waves of attacks and still carry enough threat on transitions to make their own cutting edge count.

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