Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Newcastle

Home Team
54%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
23%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 25.9

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 32 21 7 4 62 24 38 70
2 Man City 31 19 7 5 63 28 35 64
3 Man United 32 15 10 7 57 45 12 55
4 Aston Villa 32 16 7 9 43 38 5 55
5 Liverpool 32 15 7 10 52 42 10 52
6 Chelsea 32 13 9 10 53 41 12 48
7 Brentford 32 13 8 11 48 44 4 47
8 Everton 32 13 8 11 39 37 2 47
9 Brighton 32 12 10 10 43 37 6 46
10 Sunderland 32 12 10 10 33 36 -3 46
11 Bournemouth 32 10 15 7 48 49 -1 45
12 Fulham 32 13 5 14 43 46 -3 44
13 Crystal Palace 31 11 9 11 35 36 -1 42
14 Newcastle 32 12 6 14 45 47 -2 42
15 Leeds 32 8 12 12 39 49 -10 36
16 Nott'm Forest 32 8 9 15 32 44 -12 33
17 West Ham 32 8 8 16 40 57 -17 32
18 Tottenham 32 7 9 16 40 51 -11 30
19 Burnley 32 4 8 20 33 63 -30 20
20 Wolves 32 3 8 21 24 58 -34 17

Recent Trends

Newcastle L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 2 - 3)

Bournemouth W D D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Arsenal (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Burnley (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 1.97
Clean Sheets 1

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 2.32
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Newcastle are favoured to edge this one at home, with a 54.0% probability of victory against Bournemouth’s 23.0%, and a 23.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (59.0% probability) in a meeting between mid‑table sides: Bournemouth in 11th on 45 points and Newcastle 14th on 42.

Match Analysis

Newcastle’s recent form has been volatile: back‑to‑back 2-1 defeats to Sunderland and Crystal Palace were followed by a gritty 1-0 away win at Chelsea in which they were outshot 22-7 but held firm. That run underlines their inconsistency – they can be porous at the back yet still find ways to nick results. Over the last five matches they’ve scored 1.4 goals per game and conceded 2.2, with underlying numbers of 1.926 xG for and 1.972 xG against suggesting they are creating enough but remain defensively fragile, despite one clean sheet in that stretch. Bournemouth arrive in much better rhythm: a statement 2-1 win away at leaders Arsenal, followed by a 2-2 draw with Manchester United and a 0-0 at Burnley. That’s five points from three, with just three goals conceded and two clean sheets in their last five. Interestingly, the advanced metrics show they’ve allowed an average of 2.322 expected goals against in that period, far higher than the 0.4 goals they’ve actually conceded, hinting at some over‑performance in terms of shot-stopping or opposition wastefulness. Offensively they’re steady rather than explosive at 1.2 goals per game and 1.456 xG, but they’ve consistently asked questions of top defences.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Newcastle
Goals in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 59.0%, and the recent scorelines partly back that up. Two of Newcastle’s last three matches finished with exactly three goals (2-1, 2-1) and one under (1-0), while Bournemouth have had one over (2-1 vs Arsenal) and two under 2.5 (2-2 and 0-0 still keep the overall goal tallies modest). Newcastle’s mix of 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, alongside Bournemouth’s solid 1.2 for and underlying 2.322 xG against, points towards chances at both ends and a good platform for goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Corners in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.53, which fits the recent patterns for both sides. Newcastle’s last three have produced 6, 14 and 9 corners respectively, while Bournemouth’s have seen 11, 14 and 13 – all comfortably into double figures in two of those games. Given both teams like to attack and have been involved in open contests, this corners prediction of around 10–11 looks realistic for two sides who frequently use width and crosses to create pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Newcastle
Shots in last 5 matches
Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.91 suggests a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Newcastle have faced 11, 17 and 22 shots in their last three games while producing 7, 16 and 7 of their own; Bournemouth have taken 8, 16 and 22, conceding 15, 14 and 15. With both clubs regularly seeing totals in the high 20s or beyond, that shots prediction ties neatly to the xG numbers and supports the idea of an attacking, chance-heavy contest.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s home advantage and slightly stronger attacking metrics give them the edge, even if Bournemouth’s recent results against big sides show they are more than capable of an upset. The key factor to watch will be how Newcastle’s leaky defence copes with Bournemouth’s confident front line – if the hosts can tighten up at the back, their superior chance creation should justify the home-win call.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel