Premier League 2025-2026: Sunderland vs Tottenham Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sunderland

Home Team
53%
VS

Tottenham

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 31 21 7 3 61 22 39 70
2 Man City 30 18 7 5 60 28 32 61
3 Man United 31 15 10 6 56 43 13 55
4 Aston Villa 31 16 6 9 42 37 5 54
5 Liverpool 31 14 7 10 50 42 8 49
6 Chelsea 31 13 9 9 53 38 15 48
7 Brentford 31 13 7 11 46 42 4 46
8 Everton 31 13 7 11 37 35 2 46
9 Fulham 31 13 5 13 43 44 -1 44
10 Brighton 31 11 10 10 41 37 4 43
11 Sunderland 31 11 10 10 32 36 -4 43
12 Newcastle 31 12 6 13 44 45 -1 42
13 Bournemouth 31 9 15 7 46 48 -2 42
14 Crystal Palace 30 10 9 11 33 35 -2 39
15 Leeds 31 7 12 12 37 48 -11 33
16 Nott'm Forest 31 8 8 15 31 43 -12 32
17 Tottenham 31 7 9 15 40 50 -10 30
18 West Ham 31 7 8 16 36 57 -21 29
19 Burnley 31 4 8 19 33 61 -28 20
20 Wolves 31 3 8 20 24 54 -30 17

Recent Trends

Sunderland W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bournemouth (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 3)

Tottenham L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sunderland

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.53
Clean Sheets 1

Tottenham

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sunderland are favoured to take all three points, with a 53.0% probability of a home win against a Tottenham side given just a 24.0% chance, and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 50.0% probability line. In the table, Sunderland sit 11th on 43 points, while Spurs are in real trouble down in 17th on 30 points, only one point above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Sunderland come into this with confidence after two impressive away wins either side of a narrow home defeat. Victories at Leeds (1-0) and at rivals Newcastle (2-1) underline their ability to manage tight, tense matches, even when they don’t dominate the shot count – they were outshot 18-3 at Elland Road but still found a way to win. At home they were edged 0-1 by Brighton despite leading both corners (7-3) and shots (14-12), suggesting they can sustain pressure but sometimes lack cutting edge. Tottenham’s form is far more worrying. One point from their last three – a 1-1 draw at Liverpool sandwiched between home defeats to Crystal Palace (1-3) and Nottingham Forest (0-3) – tells its own story. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in that spell, and have shipped three goals in two of their last three games. Their recent xG profile (1.384 for, 1.706 against per match) points to a side giving up too many good chances, which is a serious risk away from home in a relegation battle. From an advanced metrics perspective, Sunderland look marginally more balanced. They average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, with expected goals at 1.37 for and 1.532 against – not spectacular, but competitive. Tottenham match the 1.2 goals scored but allow more at the back, and their higher xG conceded reinforces the sense that Sunderland’s 53.0% win probability is grounded in recent performance, not reputation.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction line sits right on a 50.0% probability, but the model still leans to under 2.5 as the more likely outcome. Two of Sunderland’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Leeds, 0-1 vs Brighton), with only the 2-1 win at Newcastle going over. Tottenham have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (1-3 vs Palace, 0-3 vs Forest) and one under (1-1 at Liverpool), but both teams are only scoring 1.2 goals per game on average recently, and their xG figures – 1.37 vs 1.384 for, 1.532 vs 1.706 against – point more towards a controlled, low-scoring contest than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.63, suggesting a medium-volume game for the corners prediction rather than a barrage from both sides. Sunderland’s last three have produced 14, 10 and 11 total corners, often with the opposition racking up the higher numbers (notably 9 for Leeds and 9 for Newcastle). Spurs, meanwhile, have piled up corners at home – 13 against Forest and 6 against Palace – and managed 4 at Liverpool, but often from chasing games. Given both sides’ willingness to attack from wide areas and the expectation of Sunderland taking the initiative, around 9–10 predicted corners fits their recent patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches
Tottenham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.5, pointing to a fairly active game without becoming end-to-end chaos. Sunderland’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 33 (17-16 vs Newcastle), 26 (14-12 vs Brighton) and 21 (3-18 vs Leeds), showing they can be involved in both open and more cagey encounters. Tottenham’s matches have produced 22 shots vs Forest, 30 at Liverpool and 21 vs Palace, which aligns closely with this shots prediction. With both teams averaging around 1.3 xG for in recent weeks, around 24–25 expected shots seems consistent with the quality and volume of chances they tend to create.

Final Prediction

Sunderland’s edge comes from being more solid defensively and more convincing in pressure situations, while Tottenham’s leaky back line and fragile form explain the 53.0% tilt towards a home win. The key factor to watch will be how Spurs cope without the ball: if Sunderland can sustain the kind of pressure they showed against Brighton and Newcastle, the home crowd and the numbers both point in their favour.

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