Serie A 2025-2026: Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Fiorentina

Home Team
69%
VS

Torino

Away Team
14%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Fiorentina L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)

Torino W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 6)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Fiorentina

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.47
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 0

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.50
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are favored to take all three points, with a 69.0% probability of a home win against a Torino side sitting 13th, while the Viola are down in 18th and battling relegation. Goals are expected at the Franchi: there’s a 53.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, and the model also gives a 53.0% probability that both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Fiorentina’s recent form has been mixed but competitive: a 2–1 away win at Bologna was followed by back‑to‑back 2–1 defeats against Cagliari at home and Napoli away. They’ve been in every game, consistently scoring once or twice, but unable to shut opponents out. The advanced numbers are kinder than the table: 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average in the last five matches, with even stronger expected figures (2.47 xG for and 1.282 xG against), suggesting they’re creating plenty and perhaps underachieving slightly in both boxes. Torino arrive with a narrow 1–0 home win over Lecce, but that result came after heavy defeats: 6–0 away at Como and 2–0 at home to Roma. Defensively they’ve been far more vulnerable than usual, conceding an average of 2.0 goals over the last five games, while only scoring 1.0. Their expected numbers are more balanced (1.408 xG for, 1.498 xG against), but with just one clean sheet in that span, they’ve struggled to turn those into solid results.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s stronger attacking output and superior underlying numbers give them the edge at home against a Torino team leaking goals and short on confidence away. The key factor to watch will be whether Fiorentina can convert their consistent chance creation into goals early, which could open the game up and push it towards that over 2.5 goals scenario.

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