Cagliari
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #19 of 20 42.8 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #14 of 20 in Serie A 43 pts · 11W–10D–17L · GD -13
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Cagliari?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Cagliari's results were 9.6% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Cagliari | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 43.8% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #17 | 1498 | 1527 | 1428 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #16 | 1498 | 1498 | 1411 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #15 | 1502 | 1502 | 1429 |
| 2022-23 | Serie B | #3 | 1501 | 1636 | 1636 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #18 | 1498 | 1498 | 1380 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #12 | 1502 | 1504 | 1444 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #15 | 1471 | 1620 | 1437 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #15 | 1480 | 1512 | 1418 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #13 | 1478 | 1517 | 1437 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #13 | 1480 | 1530 | 1460 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #17 | 1502 | 1502 | 1416 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Torino | W Cagliari 40.5% · draw 25.9% | W ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Udinese | W Cagliari 42.5% · draw 26.6% | L ✗ |
| May 03, 2026 | at Bologna | L Cagliari 13.9% · draw 15.4% | D ✗ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Atalanta | L Cagliari 26.8% · draw 22.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Inter | L Cagliari 8.0% · draw 10.2% | L ✓ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Cremonese | W Cagliari 58.4% · draw 20.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | at Sassuolo | L Cagliari 26.5% · draw 23.9% | L ✓ |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Napoli | L Cagliari 25.7% · draw 22.3% | L ✓ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | at Pisa | W Cagliari 43.9% · draw 25.0% | L ✗ |
| Mar 07, 2026 | vs Como | L Cagliari 20.5% · draw 19.0% | L ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/cagliari">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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