Serie A 2025-2026: Genoa vs Napoli Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Genoa

Home Team
12%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
77%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 23 18 1 4 52 19 33 55
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 23 14 4 5 33 21 12 46
4 Juventus 23 13 6 4 39 18 21 45
5 Roma 23 14 1 8 27 14 13 43
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 23 9 9 5 30 20 10 36
8 Lazio 23 8 8 7 24 21 3 32
9 Udinese 23 9 5 9 26 34 -8 32
10 Bologna 23 8 6 9 32 30 2 30
11 Sassuolo 23 8 5 10 27 29 -2 29
12 Cagliari 23 7 7 9 28 31 -3 28
13 Torino 23 7 5 11 22 40 -18 26
14 Genoa 23 5 8 10 27 34 -7 23
15 Cremonese 23 5 8 10 20 31 -11 23
16 Parma 23 5 8 10 15 30 -15 23
17 Lecce 23 4 6 13 13 30 -17 18
18 Fiorentina 23 3 8 12 25 36 -11 17
19 Pisa 23 1 11 11 19 40 -21 14
20 Verona 23 2 8 13 18 41 -23 14

Recent Trends

Genoa L W D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)

Napoli W L W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Genoa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.39
# Clean Sheets: 2

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.60
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.15
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are clear favourites away to Genoa, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points compared to just 12.0% for the hosts and 11.0% for a draw. Sitting 3rd on 46 points, Napoli are pushing for the Champions League places, while 14th-placed Genoa, on 23 points, are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone. The game is projected to finish under 2.5 total goals (47.0% for over, so a slight lean to a tighter scoreline), but there is still a 52.0% chance that both teams get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Genoa come into this with mixed recent form: a 3–2 home win over Bologna shows they can be dangerous at Marassi, but it’s sandwiched between a 3–2 defeat at Lazio and a goalless draw at Parma. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, yet their expected goals numbers (0.882 for, 1.392 against) suggest they may be slightly overperforming in attack and vulnerable at the back despite two clean sheets. Napoli’s last three outings – a solid 2–1 home win over Fiorentina, a heavy 3–0 loss at Juventus, and a 1–0 home victory over Sassuolo – underline a side that is generally in control but can be punished away from home. Their recent averages show 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, but with stronger underlying attacking numbers than Genoa: 1.602 expected goals for and 1.148 against, plus two clean sheets in their last five. That profile points to a team creating more and better chances than their raw goal tally suggests.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s superior league position, stronger underlying attacking metrics, and overall balance at both ends of the pitch give them a clear edge going into this match. Genoa’s recent goal flurries are encouraging, but the xG data hints they may struggle to consistently break down a side of Napoli’s calibre. A key factor to watch will be whether Genoa can sustain their recent attacking efficiency against a Napoli defence that, on recent evidence, limits chances better than most.

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