Lazio
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #7 of 20 54.7 expected pts · pre-season forecast
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date — the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
Final: #9 of 20 in Serie A 54 pts · 14W–12D–12L · GD +1
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Lazio?
Chaos club 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Lazio's results were 13.0% harder to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Lazio | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 46.9% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 65.6% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #8 | 1480 | 1568 | 1534 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #8 | 1520 | 1618 | 1567 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #6 | 1482 | 1577 | 1566 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #3 | 1518 | 1684 | 1628 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #4 | 1533 | 1604 | 1591 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #7 | 1533 | 1640 | 1543 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #5 | 1534 | 1738 | 1592 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #9 | 1471 | 1606 | 1518 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #5 | 1498 | 1645 | 1597 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #5 | 1529 | 1643 | 1539 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #7 | 1518 | 1554 | 1516 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #2 | 1480 | 1656 | 1619 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | at Roma | L Lazio 16.7% · draw 17.7% | L ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Inter | L Lazio 21.5% · draw 19.7% | L ✓ |
| May 04, 2026 | at Cremonese | W Lazio 45.1% · draw 24.7% | W ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Udinese | W Lazio 57.1% · draw 21.3% | D ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Napoli | L Lazio 16.9% · draw 17.9% | W ✗ |
| Apr 13, 2026 | at Fiorentina | L Lazio 32.8% · draw 25.7% | L ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Parma | W Lazio 60.5% · draw 19.9% | D ✗ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Bologna | L Lazio 23.1% · draw 22.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Milan | L Lazio 29.2% · draw 24.2% | W ✗ |
| Mar 09, 2026 | vs Sassuolo | W Lazio 54.5% · draw 22.3% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0 — attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lazio">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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<a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/lazio">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a>