Serie A 2025-2026: Inter vs Verona Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Inter

Home Team
89%
VS

Verona

Away Team
4%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.0
Expected Spread: +2.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Inter W W D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 4 - 3)

Verona L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Inter

xG (avg) 2.18
xGA (avg) 0.58
Clean Sheets 3

Verona

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.61
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are overwhelming favourites here, with an 89.0% chance of victory against a Verona side given just a 4.0% shot, and a 6.0% probability of a draw. The model points firmly to a home win for the league leaders (1st with 85 points) over a Verona team stuck in 19th on 20 points and staring at relegation. The over 2.5 prediction is also in Inter’s favour, with a 60.0% probability of at least three goals at San Siro.

Match Analysis

Inter arrive in complete control of their form: a 3-0 demolition of Lazio away, a professional 2-0 home win over Parma, and only a 2-2 draw at Torino interrupting what has been a dominant run. Across their last five matches, they are averaging 2.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, with 3 clean sheets in that span. The underlying numbers back this up: 2.176 expected goals created per game against only 0.582 expected against shows a side that consistently creates clear chances while giving very little away. Verona, by contrast, look like a team exactly where the table says they should be. Their last three outings – a 0-1 home defeat to Como, followed by draws against Juventus (1-1 away) and Lecce (0-0 at home) – underline their struggle to turn games their way. They’ve averaged only 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five, with xG of 1.06 for and 1.614 against, pointing to a side that tends to be second-best both in attack and defence.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% aligns naturally with Inter’s recent output. Two of Inter’s last three matches (3-0 vs Lazio and 2-2 vs Torino) went over 2.5 goals, with only the 2-0 against Parma falling under. Verona’s last three have all been under 2.5 (0-1, 1-1, 0-0), but their average of 1.6 goals conceded, combined with Inter’s 2.6 scored and strong xG profile, suggests the hosts can drive this game beyond the 2.5-goal line even if Verona offer limited attacking threat.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Inter
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.05, pointing to a match with a steady but not extreme flow of attacking phases. Inter’s last three have produced corner totals of 6, 11 and 10, while Verona’s have seen 14, 15 and 6, which fits well with a double-digit projected figure. With Inter likely to spend long spells in Verona’s half, the predicted corners tally reflects a dominant home side forcing blocks and clearances, while Verona’s occasional counters can add a few more.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Inter
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction calls for 26.01 expected shots in total, which is consistent with both teams’ recent patterns. Inter’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 23, 16 and 28; Verona’s produced 22, 36 and 18, with that Juventus game in particular showing how often they can be peppered. Given Inter’s offensive xG of 2.176 and Verona’s defensive xG against of 1.614, the expected shots volume points to Inter creating the bulk of chances, with Verona reduced largely to sporadic efforts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Inter wins by X goals. Negative = Verona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Inter vs Verona with expected spread of +2.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Inter vs Verona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is firmly tilted towards the champions-elect, with an expected spread of +2.29 in Inter’s favour. Over the last three games, Inter are +5 on aggregate (7 scored, 2 conceded), while Verona are -2 (1 scored, 3 conceded), underlining the gulf in both ends of the pitch. That expected spread lines up neatly with the 89.0% home-win probability and Inter’s blend of firepower and defensive control against one of the league’s weakest attacks.

Final Prediction

Inter hold all the cards: league position, form, goal difference and superior underlying numbers all point towards a comfortable home win. The key factor to watch is how early Inter break Verona’s resistance; if they score in the first half, the visitors’ limited attacking output and fragile defence could see the game quickly turn into the kind of multi-goal win the numbers predict.

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